The Grand Strategy for America in the Middle East
Theo Johnson
San Diego State University
Master of Science Homeland
Security Program
The Grand Strategy for America in the Middle East
I believe that as an intelligent
consultant it is my task to accurately identify America's National
Security and Economic interests and that while the UN is a vital
diplomatic tool and important forum for international negotiation,
that responsible leadership requires support for scholarly
intelligence work directed towards revealing factual truth and
appropriate action by America's numerous assets to advance its
national interest. This is not an effort to bully or bludgeon, this
not without respect for European and Middle Eastern Allies or the
legitimate aspirations of freedom by peoples everywhere. It is
simply a recognition that nations generally act in self-interest,
that their behaviors are predictable threw history and that the field
of political science has shown numerous predictive measures of
nation-state behavior and looked at the mechanics of how national
action is made. My goal, is an acceptable peace, but part of
achieving and maintaining that peace is preparation for war, a
realistic understanding of what is happening and how best to curtail
certain actions. The United States of America has earned the right
to be leader of the world by its merit, and should act resolutely and
with strength to defend the peace and world order it is has created.
America is certainly not perfect or infallible and certainly has made
mistakes, but is far and away the best we have, exceptional in the
quality of its populace, capacity of its economy and professionalism
of its military. America may not be an empire, but it is certainly
the necessary partner and leader required to defend and advance the
free aspirations of the world's people. While there are a multitude
of security threats around the world, the nexus of rogue leaders,
weapons of mass destruction and terrorist networks is nowhere better
identified than in Iran. In this paper we will explore the threat
posed by Iran, how it can best be addressed and make clear
recommendations for the Administration and its Military Command while
providing clarification and understanding to interested American
Citizens.
My style of intelligence is
different than many, I look to a wide range of sources, a combination
of military reports, media reports in the major media, but also seek
out non-traditional media outlets and conversations. I look at the
history, look for pattern matches and past experiences, and while I
am versed in different analytic frameworks of decision making,
particularly game theory, I also allow for the organic decision
making of my brain to process and synthesize a large volume of
information, pray, discuss and while I cannot pretend that I make
such recommendations with scientific certitude, there is a real
science behind my study that at least thins the fog of war and
removes the vale of mystery from our adversary. I currently rent a
room to a Saudi National, a grandson of the man who provides the gold
gilding placed on Mecca's most holy sight each year, before it is
replaced and given as alms to the poor. I have worked closely with
an American citizen and daughter of an Afghani national to explore a
synchronized operating system for our government and allies to combat
terrorism and organized crime. I have close Persian friends and am
in no way a war monger or one who wishes to see more violence. I am
simply a truth seeker and patriot, looking to explore the
possibilities of the future, provide valuable intelligence and make
my recommendations accordingly. Historically speaking, the Persian
Empire has been the long time foe to Western Civilization dating back
to the times of Sparta and Athens, the delian league and the Golden
Era where democracy first emerged. The people are beautiful and
strong, the land rugged and resource rich and its negative
experiences of Western Colonialism, British and American domination
authentic. As communist leaders in Iran nationalized British
controlled oil fields, Britain encouraged the CIA to take action,
successfully mounting a coup that placed a Western Backed Shah or
Persian equivalent of King back in power, who while fostering
tremendous relationships with the West and Israel, also oversaw the
brutal oppression of remnants of his population in opposition to his
policies. In 1979, the Iranian Revolution directed by the exiled
Al-Sistani, prompted a hostage crisis in which 52 US citizens were
held for 444 days while their release was negotiated and the Shah
overthrown, as the Islamic Republic was established with Al-Sistani
as its supreme leader above group of Mullahs similar to our Supreme
Court, a legislative and executive branch. Let us not however allow
for our understanding and sympathy to blind our judgement and ignore
the reality that Iran is the primary geo-political adversary of
America at a time when we as Americans are at a vital crossroads in
our history where very difficult decisions must be made.
As America has chased the
Organization Osama Bin Laden created, Al-Qaeda across the Middle
East, denying it safe havens and punishing its collaborators we have
played into the hands of his strategy, to bring us into costly fights
in rugged regions where there is little economic gain to offset the
costs of war. From our intercepts of Al-Qaeda this strategy is
referred to as the “Strategy of a Thousand Cuts,” where within
they will gradually bleed America's economic resources in an effort
to bankrupt the nation. Osama Bin Laden understood, that America's
center of gravity was its economy and so it was what he most savagely
attacked. An oversimplification, yes, but Al-Qaeda was in fact a
threat, it took advantage of the Pushtan tribal codes of eastern
Afghanistan and hosted operational bases for Al-Qaeda to plan the
9/11 attacks. Those attacks did not expose America as a paper tiger,
rather awakened a sleeping lion prompting immediate military response
from a regime that was almost entirely composed of war profiteers and
oil men, a gift handed to Dick Cheney, the pearl harbor like event
transpired and he now had the impetus and domestic support to launch
his ambitious Project for a New American Century within which he
proposed aggressive action to secure the resources of the Middle East
before China or Russia were strong enough to stop us. You can review
the document and you will find in Richard Cheney's own words,
“Further, the process of transformation, even if it brings
revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some
catastrophic and catalyzing event- like a new Pearl Harbor.” The
complexities of such power relationships are a fascinating realm in
which to delve and it is not a lie that Bush Sr.'s father and a
brother of Bin Laden met at Carlyle Group Meeting, nor is it a
falsehood that the relationships between the Bush family, the Saudi
Royal Family and the Bin Laden families close relations with the
Saudi Royal family earned them numerous construction contracts,
including monument at Mecca itself, the most holy of sights in the
Islamic world, that were paid undoubtedly by the proceeds of the Bush
family and Saudi Royal family's' oil deals.
I know your thoughts, I assume
your exposure to enemy propaganda, the allegations of false flag ops
and CIA strings behind Al-Qaeda, maybe, but maybe usually means no
and as you explore deeper and begin to understand Osama Bin Laden,
read his words and the materials of Al-Qaeda strategists and begin to
learn about the varying groups that compose the Middle East you
uncover an abundance of variance in opinions and motives within the
Saudi Arabian and Mujahideen fighters. As research continues you
begin to detect that Osama Bin Laden was the wayward son, cut off
from his family, cut off from the Saudi Government and living in
exile in Sudan and then Afghanistan insulated by a radical core of
followers that functioned and behaved as a nihilistic death cult.
One should not underestimate Osama Bin Laden, he was a tireless
worker, successfully running and operating numerous businesses which
he built by the sweat of his brow, was highly competent financially
and strategically brazen, identifying the weakness of his enemy,
pulling its far enemy of America and using its military strength
against his near enemies in the secular regimes so brutal in their
oppression of his spiritual kin. His brother, Shafiq Bin Laden's
meetings with Bush Sr. on September 10th, where both met as board
members and investors in the infamous security technology firm, The
Carlyle Group, is better understood as a means of the Bin Laden
family with so much skin in the game, to distance themselves from
Osama Bin Laden. It was an effort to show that Shafiq was on our
side and the bets they placed were closer to an inside trade than
some covert coordination of a false flag op. A criticism then that
the Bush family, along with the Bin Laden family sought to cash in on
the attack as opposed to take actions to prevent it is very real.
FBI agents have come forward about being called off the tails of key
actors in the 911 attack. While its true security would require
technology and its development would require investment to create,
these are facts the Republican Party's record must contend. The
intelligence reports of Osama Bin Laden's determination to attack
within the United States were placed on the President, George Bush's
desk in the White House, and its likely that such conversations were
discussed with Cheney and his father, former president, vice
president and director of the CIA at a time when Osama Bin Laden with
other bands of foreign fighters rallied the Afghani resistance to
Soviet invasion, successfully weakening Soviet prestige and finances,
prepping its fall as the spending game of the Reagan Era began.
Indeed, the Mujahedin were paraded around evangelical circuits as
holy war rock stars in the 80s, heroic allies in our fight against
godless Communism.
The betrayal was later, to the
surprise of his followers, that Osama Bin Laden would decide to
challenge the United States of America, his sponsor, his arms
supplier, his home countries primary buyer of oil and source of the
Arabic wealth his family had so clearly benefited. The motivation
behind such a decision is unknown, but his determination would change
the direction of history forever, away from the pleasant end of
history declared by Fukyamo and towards prolonged war between
liberalizing forces of democracy and Islamic radicalism. The
inevitable advance of democracy, liberal economics and human rights
was no longer guaranteed, as terror and the resulting security state
would shift the paradigm in way that challenges not only democracy in
America but also its advance abroad. On the morning of September
11th, 2001, 19 Al-Qaeda operatives hi-jacked two United
Airlines, and two American Airlines planes, crashing two into the
World Trade Centers Twin Towers, bringing the largest office
buildings in the world to the ground, and another passenger jet other
colliding with the Pentagon building, and a fourth believed to be
headed towards either the white house or the legislative houses was
crashed as the passengers and crew overpowered the terrorists.
Nearly 2,996 people died in the
9/11 attacks, the world was horrified and save for a few isolated
celebration in the Middle East where anti-Americanism was highest,
the world rallied behind the United States and a massive coalition
entered into Afghanistan to remove the Taliban and Mullah Omar from
power and destroy the infamous Al-Qaeda organization. The Taliban
fled for the rugged ungoverned tribal mountain regions between
Afghanistan and Pakistan. They would blend in with the villages, but
as the weather would warm, each spring brought out the fighters in
bands to make their presence felt and challenge the American
occupation. The early US operations were in fact successful, and
with a relatively small residual force, the first few years of US
occupation saw limited resistance and challenge as America
successfully decapitated substantial remnants of Al-Qaeda and the
Taliban. It could not, however, capture Osama Bin Laden or Mullah
Omar for an extended period of time as higher level collaboration
between Pakistani leadership and the allies of the United States was
offset by elements of the ISI (Pakistan's Intelligence Agency), the
Haqqani Network and lower level military elements with sympathies
towards resistance to the US to use the Taliban to strategically
project Pakistani interests in Afghanistan against the Western and
perceived Indian influence of Karzai's western aligned regime. While
Afghanistan has a long history of patriarchal democracy at the
village level and much of the country enthusiastically welcomed
liberation from the radically oppressive religious rule of the
Taliban, the sparse terrain, poorly developed economy, low rates of
literacy and high dependence on poppy cultivation posed substantial
obstacles to economic development and the formation of a functional
modern democratic nation state by western standards. Still, such a
mission to create a functional Afghani democracy, albeit dependent on
substantial foreign aid and continued military assistance, was
feasible and continues to be possible with continued focus and
competent leadership.
The Bush Administration lacked
such focus and confidence, sought to cash in on the 9/11 attacks and
the overwhelming solidarity of Americans and good will of the modern
world, the Bush Administration's strategists sought to pay back its
core of supporters and divide the Democratic party and while the
impetus of recognizing a nexus of Rogue Leaders, WMDs and terror
groups was prevalent in Saddam's Iraq, its unclear whether the high
cost in terms of both money and of even more importance human life,
was worth it, considering the destabilizing effect and continued
security concerns that resulted, including, a stronger hand for Iran
in Iraq and festering conditions conducive to the training and
development of experienced Al-Qaeda operatives. The initial invasion
of Baghdad, however, was a tremendously successful military mission,
highlighting the strengths of US military, however, the realities of
war were exposed as the Iraqi people the American military were
charged with liberating were subjected to humiliating torture in
Saddam's notorious Abu-Ghraib prison. While such were unlikely to be
entirely innocent in their capture and the questioning techniques
designed to ease the collection of valuable intelligence used to
capture Saddam Hussein and the remnants of security forces, the
embarrassing leakage of photos taken by the military, posted on
social media served as the perfect recruiting tool for
anti-Americanism and resistance to US occupation; the Americans had
become white handed replacements to Saddam continuing there
oppression, and an insurgency gathered strength that would
substantially increase the cost of the Iraq war, cost American and
coalition lives and reduce our ability to elevate the standard of
living for the Iraqi people. While lower level participants in such
actions, including Corporal Graner were brought to justice, white
house attorneys, the chain of command leading directly up to Rumsfeld
and Congressmen, including the laudatory praise of Corporal Graner by
Alabama Republican, Mike Rogers, were aware of the “wallings and
water boarding” yet have to date avoided further prosecution. The
war which did eventual lead to the capture of Saddam Hussein and
allow for free and fair democratic elections in Iraq and the
insurgency was finally subdued with the lead of Robert Gates as
America significantly increased its military presence and the number
of boots on the ground in what was called “The Surge,” where the
Sunni Awakening in which America armed Sunni militias to take out the
Al-Qaeda elements amongst them proved successful. The war also
succeeded in prompting Iran to suspend its nuclear enrichment program
from 2002-2007 and to motivate Gaddafi in Libya to hand over his
nuclear warheads. These successes have been overshadowed, however,
as relations between the now Sunni lead government and minority
ethnic groups, the Sunnis and Kurds, have deteriorated as the chaos
in neighboring Syria spilled over into Iraq as Al-Qaeda under banner
of ISIS has made a surprising come back at a time when the Sunni
Militias were bitter over failures of the Baghdad government to meet
their financial promises. Now they seek to arm them once again, pay
them late, but this time without the presence of the US military that
has instead been replaced by a caustic cynicism directed towards the
Shi'ite lead Iraqi Government.
The war also distracted America
and its allies from their focus in completing the mission in
Afghanistan, which allowed for a resilient Taliban insurgency that
prompted a similar surge of troops in Afghanistan. The success was
less than clear in Iraq as the remote tribal nature of the
Afghanistan differ from the Urbanized and municipal realities of
Iraq; however, it has helped to stabilize a very fragile country as
it builds up its security forces and prepares to increase its
independence as American presence is substantially reduced. While
elements of the Taliban persist in their belief they can wait out the
US occupation, the majority of their commanders have been captured or
killed and increasing numbers of the volatile at risk youth have been
armed and put to work by the American and Kabal Government. The
Taliban's sophistication of attacks and professionalism is noted, but
so is the capacity of the Afghani's to withstand such attacks
independently. It would be a huge error for the American military to
rush for the exits, however, as their will be a continued need for
their presence, with permanent military bases and airfields a
realpolitic necessity in
light of a troubled nuclear armed Pakistan to the South East, and
increasingly assertive Iran with advanced enrichment capacity to the
West.
While
Iran participated in the ousting of the Taliban from Afghanistan and
suspended its nuclear enrichment activities as America lead its
coalition into Iraq, through its foreign intelligence apparatus, the
Quds or Jerusalem force it began providing arms for any and all who
challenged the American military in Iraq, including Al-Qaeda,
providing insurgents with materials to make IEDs, guns and bullets.
With the secular Sunni Leadership of Saddam removed, the election of
Shi'ite leadership brought Iraq which had historically been at war
with Saddam's regime substantially closer to it, looking to the
Shi'ites of Iran for spiritual leadership, military assistance,
investment and trade.
The
presidency of Barack Obama largely brought a continuation of policy
from the Bush Administration as experience improved our militaries
counter-insurgency methodologies and technological breakthrough
brought armed unmanned drones into our arsenal, as network based
theories of warfare allowed us to launch precision strikes at the
nodes of adversary resistance. Barack Obama ordered a successful
attack on Osama Bin Laden, killing him the compound he inhabited, in
the heart of Pakistan's intelligence and military community. America
exited Iraq with some haste as failures to garner signatures on
immunity agreements for US military personnel were impetus to depart,
while limited increases in American military presence in Afghanistan
eased American wins on the battlefield but made holds and
stabilization an undermanned endeavor prompting necessary suffices
that further militarize a country that now has a massive 300 thousand
strong security force among which nearly half cannot even read and
write. The Taliban continues to be pest, both in Afghanistan but
increasingly in Pakistan which has increased its usage of airstrikes
in recent weeks, a recognition of the very real security issue they
continue to mount, in nation with over a100 nuclear weapons and
substantial radicalism and poverty to offset its brain power,
democratic institutions, westernized legal system and tenuous
military collaboration.
The
Arab Spring, spawned by Tunisian peddler's decision to ignite himself
in flames to protest the oppression of Tunisian Autocracy, inspired
Arabs across north Africa and the Middle East to take to the streets
to protest for democratic reforms, a movement which the Obama
Administration quickly moved behind. The protests brought the
collapse of long lasting Authoritarian regimes in Tunisia and in
Egypt where democracy took root organically without western military
action or presence. As the Arab spring spread it posed problems as
American allies were inundated with massive protests that were at
times turning violent. With Democracy, the Tunisians and Egyptians
elected Islamist regimes causing immense uncertainty what the
implications of such radicalism would entail for the security of
Israel, the Mediterranean and the world in general. Excited by the
liberating effect of Democracies, the theorcratic tendencies of those
elected presented an impasse. The Governments permitting American
military presence, quietly put down the Shi'ite populaces' uprising
inspired by the Arab spring, while the regimes considered most
dangerous to American interests, including Gaddafi's Libya and
Assad's Syria, saw substantial support flow to the resistance. In
Libya, as Gaddafi prepared to march his tanks on Benghazi and butcher
the civilian protestors, UN security authorization of no-fly zones
were used as legal permission to provide air support to the rebels
who successfully defeated the Tripoli regime, killing the dictator of
42 years, Col. Omar Gaddafi and providing for the election of a
secular regime, that faces continued security challenges from the
radical militias operating autonomously alongside the militias
aligned with the Free Libyan regime that requires continued
International Support but is none the less, making progress. Such
Civil Wars and Revolutions are always bloody, make no romantic
misconceptions about it, when the oppressed are freed they often seek
violent retaliation that includes torture, murder and extra-judicial
killings, the break down in law and governance also often coincides
with spikes in organized crime and criminal enterprise operations.
The actions in Libya, were at least successful, the deep evil of
Gaddafi unquestioned, and the promise of a better Libyan future at
minimum a realistic hope, if not realized reality.
In
Egypt, the election of the Muslim Brotherhood brought substantial
issues as the Truth and Justice party leader, Morsi was too radical
in his effort to constitutionalize the Qu'ran and overrule the court
rulings and challenge the military, alienating the liberal
co-patriots so influential in the removal Murbarak. The military
intervened and democratic transition has yet to transpire but is
promised by the military leadership. Perhaps learning from the
example of Egypt, the Tunisian Islamists who were successful in the
elections made substantial compromise with liberals and technocrats,
providing for a constitution enshrining the basic institutions of a
modern liberal democracy into the countries existence as a matter of
law, remaining unopposed to the democratic transfer of power.
Yemen,
saw political transition as Al-Qaeda continued to wage attacks and
America continues to respond with unmanned drone strikes, an effort
to prevent the contamination from spreading to Saudi Arabia, which
successfully halted popular protest by combining a heavy fist with an
outreached hand offering generous benefits to the loyal portions of
the populace. The Regimes in Bahrain and Qatar also survived, but
fragmented populations continue to pose obstacles to stability and
security for both those western aligned regimes.
The
displaced mercenaries of the Gaddafi regime migrated South, teaming
up with Al-Qaeda and Tuaregs to create Azawed, a short lived Islamic
State in North Eastern Africa from which they began raiding, raping
and implementing Sharia law on the Black Africans of the Malian
democracy; as Al-Qaeda approached Timbuktu spreading humanitarian
crisis, the French Foreign legion lead a UN authorized team of
primarily Nigerians, but also other ECOWAS nation militaries to
successfully route Al-Qaeda and chase it into the remote desert. The
Tuaregs, who had already been double-crossed by Al-Qaeda, were quick
to re-align themselves with the Timbuktu government and help chase
the foreign Arab agitators from the region. These same displaced
mercenaries of Gaddafi, aligning themselves with Al-Qaeda and
capitalizing on the break down of law and porous borders of North
Africa also waged attacks on British Petroleum installations in
Algeria prompting massive Algerian military response that left both
hostage and hostage takers dead.
Nigeria
has continued to experience an escalating insurgency from a group
that goes by Boko Haram, arabic for “Western Education is banned,”
that Nigerian Security forces have competently contained but continue
to be a nuisance that needs western intelligence monitoring none the
less. The Somalis have also seen a persistent insurgence from a
group that goes by Al-Shabaab or “The Youth” that has received
training from Al-Qaeda, benefits from the revenues of oil tanker
piracy and has waged attacks against not only the Somali government,
but also into Kenya where elaborately planned mall shootings prompted
immense terror and killed many innocent civilians.
South
Sedan has recently seen renewed troubles despite its recent
independence from the Islamic Dominance of Northern Sedan. Central
African Republic has been the latest seen of violence where conflicts
oversimplified as fights between the Christian majority and a now
defeated coup of Muslim fighters erupted into cyclical vengeance
killings as militias raised to protect the civilian population from
Muslim Selekas took the upper hand in fighting, burning and
mutilating both Seleka fighters but also civilian populations causing
them to take flight to Chad for safety. French lead UN operations to
disarm both sides have been overwhelmed by the deep and bitter hatred
between the waring parties.
Fighting
in Syria spiraled out of control as Russia's effort to protect its
client, Bashar Al-Assad and legitimate concerns about the political
vision of the opposition hosting close to five to seven thousand
fighters under allegiance to core Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri
as the Al-Nursi Front under the command of Abu-Mohammed Al-Julani and
another three to five thousand allied with its affiliated but
independent, fighting as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIS), alongside 45,000 fighters united under the the Islamic Front
that pulled together 7 Islamist groups with the stated goal of
removing Bashar Al-Assad from power and creating an Islamic Republic.
The west has been providing support for a coalition operating as
the Free Syrian Army; however, its long time leader Brig. Gen Salim
Idris as been replaced by Col. Adb al-Ilah al-Bashir. What is clear
is that Gen. Salim Idris was an ineffective military leader, lacking
operational command over a loose federation of Brigades, serving
instead as a spokesman to the West and conduit of aid and support,
both financial, military and humanitarian. While there are
substantial elements of this group which are the preferred partners
amongst the opposition, there are others that are Islamist and
collaborate regularly with Al-Qaeda affiliates. The basic belief
amongst these groups is that if the Sunni are put back into power and
the “natural order” is restored, their will be peace. They are
largely proponents of the Salafi religious movement and there is
little substance to suggest they intend to play according to the
terms of democratic transition outlined by the United Nations. The
Syrian military has seen substantial, perhaps as much as 100,000
defections joining the opposition, and increased efforts to prevent
the inflow of foreign fighters have been implemented and the violent,
prolonged and brutal nature of the fighting makes the peaceable
aftermath witnessed in Tunisia where the Islamists let go of power to
an authentic and modern constitutional democracy less likely than
liberals disgusted by Bashar Al-Assad's atrocious crimes against
humanity would like to think.
Bashar
Al-Assad's Allawite regime is aligned closely with Shi'ite Iran,
dependent on the protection of its Russian sponsor who has its only
Mediterranean naval base in Syria, and the Lebanese based Hezbollah.
Bashar Al-Assad has clung to power with the brutality of a
professional and largely loyal military of believed to continue to
have 140 thousand troops, advanced anti-aircraft missile systems
complicating would be efforts at a no-fly zone and a willingness to
used sustained campaigns of torture, starvation, aerial assault and
even massive chemical weapons attacks in his attempt to pound the
opposition into submission. The extensive destruction that has
resulted has only hardened the opposition that has experienced an
inevitable radicalization in the process. While its not exactly a
military stalemate by definition, the bloody fighting has created
divided zones and the American interest is unclear, we'd like to
Bashar Al-Assad to go and a new democratic regime take its places,
but don't want a radical Islamist regime either. The interest of our
allies and the population at large, is even harder to define.
Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian Qub forces have also been active in
the fighting, assisting Bashar Al-Assad. UN lead Peace talks have
gone nowhere and patience with Assad's agreements to disarm itself of
chemical weapons are thinning. Several key dates have been missed as
reports of three additional instances of chemical weapons usage have
been presented. Assad attributes delays in the chemical weapons
deliveries to the fighting on the ground, was able to deliver the
shipment later, with it necessarily clarified we do not ask of his
military to ship chemical weapons at times and in areas where it
cannot protect them from Al-Qaeda proxies. While America and Europe
generally agree in principal to democratic transition, there has been
scant signs and no reason to believe that Bashar Al-Assad would host
free and fair elections or acknowledge any such results if he should
lose. Republican controlled congress's rebuff of Barack Obama's
request to authorize tomahawk assaults on Syrian weapons sights,
allowed for the WMD variable to unnecessarily remain in the equation,
weakening our hand in negotiations with Iran, while simultaneously
presenting a real risk of Al-Qaeda securing chemical weapons and
allowing for Bashar Al-Assad's usage of them against civilian
populations to go unpunished, a dangerous precedent to consider.
Meanwhile
Iran and the Obama administration have negotiated a 6 month temporary
deal to that halts Iranian enrichment at 5%, well below any weapons
grade potential in exchange for minimal relaxations on tight
Sanctions that been gradually increased since 1979. Let there be no
illusion of uniformity in opinion on either the Iranian or Iraqi
side, Rouhani and Obama have an agreement, but the actions of war and
political profiteers, legislatures and elements within the military
and intelligence agencies of both sides, can easily derail confidence
in the agreement by real action or propaganda could easily tilt the
uneasy peace exemplified by the recent administrative collaboration
that is the Winter Olympics held in Russia for the only adjective
that can accurately describe such a balance as fragile. The common
thread along all this winding path of war zones and battlefields
where Western powers have responded to aggression to protect civilian
populations is the prevalent possession of Russian made AK47s and
Iranian produced bullets by all these unified adversarial groups.
Where we have seen dictators cling to power despite democratic
opposition and election results, Russian arms, military and other
business contracts have persisted to guide Russia's vote on the UN
security council and their advise to client states.
One
must acknowledge, the slightest miscalculation can easily escalate
this conflict into a third world war, one that could potentially see
Russia and America engaged in a hot war, unlikely, but certainly not
impossible. Failure to act, could provide for a Nuclear Armed
Persian Empire, capable of unifying substantial portions of the
Islamic world from Indonesia to Morocco under the leadership of its
Caliphate. The westernized world needs to face these realities with
grave seriousness and cannot underestimate their adversary and allow
for infighting to sabotage a unified position. The combination of
American retreat from the Middle East, the allowance of Iran to go
Nuclear and the easing of sanctions would allow for rapid Iranian
expansion as it would fills the power vacuums in Afghanistan and Iraq
left by an American Exit. The world would be on path to a new era in
its history where the Western World, America and Europe are
increasingly challenged not so much by the workers party of China or
the stagnated advance of liberalism in Russia, but by a menacing
nuclear armed Persian Empire directing the actions of nations across
the Middle East and North Africa that even Russia would be unable to
control.
America,
NATO, the British Common Wealth nations and our allies military
commanders need to be prepared not only for precision military
strikes designed to decimate Iranian Nuclear potential and then
withstand retaliation, but to also explore what wider scale
operations involving a large boot print occupation of Syria, Iraq and
Afghanistan as staging grounds for a wider invasion of Iran would
look like and be ready for rapid deployment if such necessities
arise. Caution and understanding must be employed surrounding the
risk of military build up, the pressures that often cause military
build ups to lead to armed confrontation even when the issues driving
the build up have been resolved, but none the less, our countries
must have such plans in place and training for the execution of such
plans if conditions worsen and negotiations with Iran fail.
America
has no choice but to keep its bases in Afghanistan. Kurdish regions
of Iraq and Syria, along with Sunni regions facing Al-Qaeda
insurgencies, with the Kurdish Controlled north eastern most province
of Syria and Maronite Christian controlled pockets, could present a
friendly staging ground as attacks across Assad's North Eastern
coastal province could subdue and oust his hostile regime if
necessary. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Armenia along
with the US naval presence in the Black Sea stemming from the
security precautions of the Olympic games could facilitate a tight
drag net invasion of Iran that can prevent the Revolutionary Guard's
escape from Tehran as the Saddam's Red Guard managed as Turkey
blocked an invasion of Baghdad from the North West, sufficiently
heading off and concealing the personnel competent in rallying a
prolonged insurgency. Turkey continues to be the Wild Card in the
game, a bridge from Europe to the Middle East, it could bring a
substantial, professional, secular Muslim democratically controlled
military into the game, but it is more likely to sit to the side
lines complaining about war, American militance and the Kurdish
Independence groups it considers terrorists. Such a war would be
dreadful, the costs high, the civilian toll high and while the West
would win the battle, our domestic freedoms would be tested, our
finances stretched and population pressed in a way that is difficult
to sustain in a democracy with a free media and internet. Similarly
to how Great Britain's success in World War II fostered the
transition of global power to the United States, such actions would
likely incur a transition of global power from the United States of
America to the United Nations. Such an invasion would also
inevitably play into the hands Al-Qaeda and Islamists as a stable
state with improving democratic institutions and practice would be
invariably destroyed. The UN could not resist its unsustainable and
unaffordable near-communistic instincts of which substantial portions
of the populace, at least in the US, Israel and British Commonwealth
nations will never accept, so then what?
The
preferred course, is for Iran to understand how serious we are about
preventing their acquisition of a nuclear weapons, that such an
acquisition would mean the immediate acquisition of a nuclear weapon
Iran's regional rival in Saudi Arabia by way of Pakistan, and even
tighter sanctions, further isolating them at a time when substantial
portions of the population seek modernity. As negotiations continue,
let us expect Iran to make the rational decision, for trust to be
built, and for Iran to avoid the acquisition and creation of a
nuclear warhead.
Confidence
building measures must be pursued, collaboration with UN nuclear
watchdogs must continue, as intelligence agencies penetrate the
highest levels of the regime and nuclear facilities to be certain
that the enrichment process does not reach weapons grade and stays
below 5%. This is the agreement, the necessary appearance of
strength for Rouhani, achieving a peaceful nuclear energy program,
the parallel compromise of Robert Kennedy's agreement to turn the
NATO missile launchers in Turkey 180 degrees in the resolution of the
Cuban Missile crisis.
Conservation of force requires us
to be patient with the agreements on Syria, to understand the
treacherous operational environment and difficulty of moving its
Chemical Weapons to the coast. America and the West must make our
condemnation of Bashar al-Assad's regime clear, while being honest
about the prevalence of Al-Qaeda amongst the opposition and the
immense uncertainty as to what would come with a Rebel victory.
While US military action, with at minimum a now fly zone, on up to
the deployment of 75,000 troops would bring about a rebel victory
whose aftermath we would be in a stronger position to manage, it
could also push the Iranians to the decision that nuclear deterrence
is the only means of preventing an American lead invasion, a calculus
that would have been different if America had already bombed Syrian
Chemical Weapons sights with Congressional approval before entering
into such an agreement with Iran. Republican's in Congress having
already made so many devastating blunders, must they destroy the
canvas upon which the map of earth is drawn by expecting Iran to
dismantle their nuclear program altogether?
In the meantime America cannot fall
for the classic tragic downfall of the Heros of greek morality plays,
Hubris- or excessive pride, and must instead continue mending
relations with allied powers, reassure confidence in both the
capability and necessity of our military, its continued presence in
Afghanistan, its preparedness to face larger conflicts, while
rallying funds and support to partner with vulnerable nations in
Africa and across the Middle East, both in collaboration with the
United Nations and World Bank, but also at times directly and
independently. American investment can help leverage the natural
resources of these regions that when combined with technocracy and
training can yield them to the benefit of the domestic populaces as
well as our own, facilitating security training capable of protecting
these rising nations infrastructures and economies from the destitute
backwardness of terrorism, reducing the need for American and
European warriors and soldiers as the competency and professionalism
of their militaries increase in partnership with the West at the
direction of our responsible leadership. The world has not been
sentenced to a third world war, but it is on notice of the risks, I
plead with varying parties challenging the incumbents to hush their
egos, and stand unified behind the elected leadership as we navigate
through a challenging and difficult period, from which we will emerge
as a global populace wealthier, stronger and more unified than ever
before. May we prepare for war, pray for peace and find the patience
and discipline to wait as the vigor of our intelligence agencies, the
pathways of our diplomatic channels, military commands and
productivity of economy is renewed and focused.
Syrian Civil War
International Relations
Foreign Policy Strategy
Foreign Affairs
posted by Mi vida en libros @ 2:39 PM
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