The Mission for NATO: 2014 and Beyond
The Mission for NATO:
2014 and Beyond
For the Orwell fans amongst my
readers, you may remember that in the novel, 1984, Russia had
essentially taken control of all of Europe, with the United States
annexing the United Kingdom. It was the Marshall plan, that
prevented this from being a reality, and the strength of NATO that
facilitated the collapse of the Berlin Wall. Countries such as
Poland, exemplify the prosperity that can come with the integration
of Western Norms. Unfortunately, combinations of corruption and
crime, along with various national responses to the fiscal crisis of
2009, along with increased skepticism about the Alliance, stemming
from America's decision to enter back into Iraq in 2003, have created
seams of discontent as NATO allies have enjoyed a free ride behind
the security of American military might. Much of Europe depends on
American military bases, guarantees and posturing, but taking
American investment in such defense for granted, they are quick to
criticize American military action. The recent situation in
Ukraine, where within Russian separatists continue to obstruct efforts to
integrate Ukraine into the European Union and Crimea was annexed by
Russia, have resulted in a renewed reminder about the importance of our
NATO alliance. While I certainly respect Barack Obama's cool head
and restraint in the conflict, following phone calls with Russia he
seemed to empathize with Putin's grievance that Russia lost the
Soviet Union, when he should have been drawing attention to the
immense human suffering Russia's occupation of Eastern Europe
inflicted on the local populaces. Such signals, and unwillingness
to clearly commit to the security of Ukraine and other EU and Nato
partners sends mixed messages, that American leadership needs to
avoid. While the cradle of economic vitality may very well shift to
the Pacific Rim and the US should make strategic considerations and
reorganizations accordingly, it cannot retreat from the hard fought
gains of the Cold War and allow for Russia to terrorize the
sovereignty of our Eastern European allies. While European
intellectualism lacks the love for military matters common in the
United States, effective American leadership needs to lead the NATO
alliance by providing a vision for its role in the coming decades.
American needs to encourage increasing investment and commitment in
NATO from European alliance members to continue not only containing
Russia, but aggressively subduing terrorism, effectively policing
cyber attacks, stabilizing young democracies in North Africa,
deterring Iranian nuclear ambitions and take the lead for
development projects in the regions beyond Europe away from China.
Russia's large professional
military and rugged weaponry, at the direction of increasingly feisty
and authoritarian Putin leadership, means that NATO remains as
important to regional security and peace as it was in 1991. Russia has
been increasingly protective of its client states, supporting some
very bad men willing to consume Russian weapons, use them against
their civilian populations and go against democratic aspirations in
an effort to maintain priority placement for client state government
contracts. This was the case in the Ivory Coast, this was the case
in Libya, this was the case in Syria and this was the case in
Ukraine. While America has advanced enterprise economies and the
right to compete fairly within economic countries, Russia has
continued to squash market forces, protect monopolies and prioritize
Russian national interests over human rights. It has had no problem
equipping terrorists and Islamists with AK47s and the real extent of
its clandestine role in the civilian massacres around the world is
unknown. Russia has popped its submarines up and flown fighter jets
along the coast of California, and continues to engage in espionage
and has even murdered democratically elected leadership in Eastern
Europe. Putin has systematically cleared all opposition to his
policies by tightly controlling the media and abusing the legal
system to target political rivals. Russian professionalism, in the
darker sense, has coincided with increasingly risky posturing,
including stacking its tanks and 40,000 men along the Ukrainian
border. With China and particularly Russia, continuing to use their
Security Council votes to advance narrow self interests, that go
against the interests of global security, NATO is going to have a renewed role as the primary forum for organizing international
coalitions and actions against threats. Russia, undeniably, continues
to be a threat, and will be one, particularly for our allies in
Eastern Europe so long as the old KGB vanguard from which Putin
emerged continues to breath. The promising young Democracy of Boris
Yelsten was pummeled by a crafty alliance between Russian organized
crime and the KGB, who positioned themselves to commandeer state assets and benefit
from their fire sale following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Efforts at integrating Russia into the modern
world have been frustrated by heavy handed abuses of their legal
system and the emergence of an insulated plutocracy. Sparse
populations and substantial natural resources secure a prosperous
future for Russia's elite; integration into the global economy and
liberal order could secure a prosperous and peaceful future for all
Russians.
Terrorism is not the overplayed
threat spotlighted in a few spectacular attacks, it is a near daily
norm around the globe that demands persistent engagement and the
exercise of decisive policy. The Arab Spring and resulting upheaval
has weakened regional states' abilities to suppress and control
various terrorist networks that have diversified their support
structures into a range of organized crime activities centered around
illicit smuggling. The chaos of Syria and the extensive number of US
and European Visas recruited to join the fighting have been trained
and radicalized and their return to their host countries will result
in the development of operational terrorist cells that without forward defensive vigilance will carry out terrorist attacks. NATO and the EU are going
to need to tighten their monitoring of passports and travel visas,
while bolstering cooperative surveillance and policing operations to
dismantle terrorist cells. Tensions between Muslim and non-muslim
communities are likely to escalate, which will lead to tighter
restrictions on visas and travel, along with increasing risks of hate
crimes. If ISIS, in Iraq and Syria, for example, draws NATO into an
escalated presence in Iraq, domestic security needs to increase its
vigilance in preventing terrorism by arresting terrorists. While
Interpol and national policing in Europe is first world and first rate, intelligence sharing
from NATO military forces and our nations respective intelligence agencies is going to be crucial for optimal success.
Increasingly, our terrorist enemies, along with state backed clandestine agencies have used cyber
attacks to gain information about Western military and business
practices. Cyber crimes and terrorism have also accounted for
general havoc across the internet and massive fraudulent wealth
transfers. It has contributed to extensive incentives for sex
trafficking and the range of other illicit activities that follow in
its tail. Illicit activities have become means of financing more
serious terrorist operations with an increasingly close intersect
between the terrorist and criminal underworlds. Afghanistan poppies
for example, at times smuggled into North Africa by Al-Qaeda, have
become a common means of financing the Taliban's military operations. The sale to Europe in turn funds operations in North Africa. Cyber crime and terrorism, have become increasingly one and the
same, as terrorist organizations have effectively used the internet
to increase the number of sympathizers and potential recruits. Several terrorist actors have
self-radicalized exclusively from the internet, avoiding the trail
that travel to the Middle East and training with Jihadis provides
counter-terrorism investigators. NATO, by facilitating better
communication with domestic policing authorities, can pin-point the
location of cyber terrorist attacks and crime, then dispatch policing
authorities to make arrests and investigate. Such effective policing
can deter cyber terrorists and criminals.
North Africa is a region where
NATO's military professionalism and economic resources can contribute
immensely to the stabilization and development of the young
democracies and republics that have emerged from the Arab Spring. The upside on
North African countries such as Libya and Nigeria is immense, but
they are unquestionably vulnerable and a careful, coordinated,
strategic approach to engagement, security and development must be
pursued with energy and competence. Lax, minimalist approaches are
unlikely to halt the influence of groups such as Boko Haram, Ansar
Al-Sharia and Al-Qaeda. While regional governments have taken the
lead and performed adequately in operations against these groups, a
stronger NATO commitment to militarily defeating these terrorist
organizations is necessary. Europe and NATO cannot afford to
surrender the well being of friendly governments in the EU, the human
rights of their people, or the resource rich territories to Islamist
radicals and jihadi terrorists who, unfettered will continue to
spread their contaminating ideology and use their gains to wage
continued military advances against the liberal democratic
aspirations of vulnerable populaces.
If Iran deludes itself into
thinking that it can procure nuclear weapons without massive military
intervention from Israel and NATO, then it will trigger a regional
nuclear arms race with particular bearing to the security of our NATO partner, Turkey. The creation of a nuclear weapon in Iran, would
free its clandestine Quds forces to increase their support for
Hezbollah in Beirut and Bahrain, Al-Qaeda in Iraq and the PKK in
Turkey, allowing it to exert increasing influence across the Muslim
countries of North Africa, on the Arabian Peninsula and within Europe
by way of its proxies. The security threat of a nuclear armed Iran is
immense, and allowing for Iran to go nuclear would be an
irresponsibly reckless security policy that everyone should be
alarmed by. While the West obviously wants to avoid armed conflict
with Iran and see the issues resolved diplomatically, it is important
that we make it very clear that NATO will act together if necessary,
to prevent Iran from building a nuclear arsenal.
NATO should continue to coordinate
training and support for governments across responsible and
cooperating governments across Africa and the Middle East, combining
them with investments in development and business ventures that can
marginalize an increasing Chinese influence in the region. While
China's investment and commitment to development in the region is
welcomed, it cannot come without the fair and friendly competition of
NATO countries. NATO operated bases are necessary element of
stability and a strategic projection of strength that should be
expanded. The Peace loving doves of Europe need to understand the
scientific truth, that at times, increased military presence, bases
and weaponry is the most effective way to preserve and advance not
only peace, but liberal ideals including enterprise, democracy, the
rule of law and human rights.
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