"Kings will be tyrants from policy when subjects are rebels from principle."
On Terror: Avoiding World War III, Saudi Princes and Iranian Nukes, The Fall of Assad and how it relates with Tutoring exchange students on the French Revolution.
It was a sunny day in late October. The desk job and tired pitch on Internet marketing wasn't making me any money, just costing me time. How can I spend my evening hours scouring through Joint Chiefs reports, intel reports and scholarly books on warfare and the fight against terrorism just to read a simple sales script to individuals I would never meet about a product I doubted would ever work. A classmate from my homeland security program informed me that the Halo Corp was holding their annual counter-terrorism summit and they were looking for volunteers from our class to work the security. It was the perfect excuse to escape the cubicle and I was quick to volunteer. The summit was on Paradise Island in beautiful San Diego, and the deal was that if we put in our hours on guard we would get meal tickets and a hotel room. The accommodation was swell and it was a great opportunity to get to know my classmates while receiving some tactical training and playing with the latest high-tech counter-terrorism toys. Tapestry Solutions, integrated control boards were my personal favorite. I could use them on every potential battlefield around the globe and every major sports arena, spend $50,000 a board, $10,000 a scenario and have full confidence it was a worth while usage of discretionary spending, even with sequestration in effect. I spoke with a former prosecutor for the Navy who had specialized in espionage cases and was surprised by a unit of zombie hunters preparing for the zombie apocalypse. Someone needs to adjust the medication levels for those guys, 30 thousand dollars for an exhibit table at the summit, literally legions of followers on facebook, a business training soldiers to fight zombies and a tv show in the works. The summit was a mix of really good ideas ready for market, really dumb ideas that have since run their course, and decent ideas still being developed.
I was particularly interested in former CIA director General H and excited to be off security detail when he gave his speech. Considering that he was the master of all our nations secrets he appeared rather unassuming, unpretentious, but surprisingly intimidating. With Xe and the rest of the old mercenary boys lurking everywhere, I sensed a "should we whack him?" question circulating in the wind. Looking back, his stature suggested a Napoleon complex of sorts. I'll be honest, I liked him and held an immense amount of respect for him. I could only imagine the missions he's directed, the lives he's saved and tough decisions he's had to make for the greater good of our country. A real life hero, I felt, and not in the simple soldier giving his life type, but a real chessboard mastermind. After his speech I approached him, half expecting to get gunned down by some unseen security sniper in the trees, but as it was a meet and greet and open for questions I approached with caution. I wanted to ask him about one very specific subject, "Syria."
Beginning college several weeks after the 9/11 attacks, the war on terror and the Middle East had been a focus of my studies I delved deeper into a myriad of related issues from asssymetrical warfare, the history of conflict between the Middle East and the West, the threat assessment of WMDs, rogue leaders and terror groups to extensive studies on Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, al-Haqqani network, Hezbollah and Hamas, game-theory, realist theory, complexity theory, Jervis Theory, Mutually Assured Destruction, the clash of civilization and extensive reviews of COIN, our nation building efforts and anything pertinent to the IR intelligence world. I even went to Cambridge England and studied the history of MI6, CIA and the KGB. I realize I've been gradually training to be a master spy, just without the traditional military path, making me all the more an outsider and throwback in my mI6 style methodologies of intel gathering and asset development. A real life, American James Bond, comfortable in my Machiavellian virtue and service to the greater good. Fresh off the successes in Libya of gaining a UN authorization for a no-fly zone and sending an Ethnic Libyan co-worker off to his home country to successfully go raise a militia out of his Bengazi based tribe and go kill the longest lasting dictator on Earth, Gaddafi, I was confident in my ability to see what must be done and get it done. Syria had given me some issues, I knew when Obama said Assad has got to go, he's got to go, or else the Presidents threats and words cease to have power.
After abstaining from votes on the no-fly zone on Libya, there was no way China and particularly Russia were ever going to approve one, even as Assad flew jets to bomb his own citizens. Putin, head of Russia, was the former KGB, and when the USSR finally fell and the market place opened it was a cooperation of the old KGB and crime families that moved in together to fill the power vacuum. Putin is irrefutably a master mind, a competitor worthy of sitting at the other end of the global chess board and a look at his college thesis shows his in depth understanding of geopolitical realism and desire to provide investment in state run companies to build them up has competitors to American based intentional corporations, extract resources from around the world and refine them. Russia has rugged weapons and both Putin and his inner circle prosper when he has countries buying them in defense of regional threats or American invasion. The Ivory Coast, Libya and Syria, were all his clients and with the UN actions removing the electoral looser in the Ivory Coast from power and the Arab Spring sweeping across North Africa I had consequently placed Putin in check. So he chose to protect Assad, make it an opportunity to sell arms and make some money. This was no surprise, but risky none the less.
What could I do, declaring war would have exhausted political capital and any hope of an Obama re-election. The best we could really get was the Arab league to supply arms, limited clandestine training on the Turkish side of the Border by English commandos and non military support from the US in the form of radios, medical and food relief along with limited logistical support. The Saudis were sending the Salafi trouble makers they'd rather have else where to do the fighting while their wealthy financiers parade as Sunni heros. The survivalism has taught the Saudi princes to publicly present themselves of champions of Islam publicly, while remaining generous, albeit calculating business men in private. Few people realize the Saudis footed the bill for the entire first Iraq war and when trouble brewed in Libya, they increased oil supply to prevent market tensions from Libyan supply disruptions. Well we have to work with what we have, Salafi or not, they have the balls to fight and sadly for America national interest the balls to fight is all we really need to keep Syria weakened by turmoil as we decide what to do with Iran. Its a precarious and foolhardy leap of trust with the hind sight of seeing what amounted from the old Mujahideen in Afghanistan, but its the only move on the chess board. The thing is, if we don't get in there on the ground, when the fighting is over, they are going to have the final say in what is made of Free Syria. This is why America must involve itself, if we help them win, we can have a stronger hand to install a Government we can tolerate.
While I supported the Iraq war at its onslaught, I grew weary and distraught as the fighting dragged on and the situation worsened. To my surprise, the surge succeeded in stabilizing the county and as the populous tired with Al-Qaeda's violent ways America was able to leave a semi-functional country with democratically elected leaders and only limited sectarian violence. That prick of leader who gassed the Kurds and invaded Kuwait was dead and while the Shias seem more loyal to Iran than America, the attack prompted Gaddafi to give up his nuclear weapons and for Iran to put off uranium enrichment for years. Costly, without question, but the long term benefits and prevention of allowing that devil son of Saddam, Uday Hussein from coming to power, is a win that cannot be financially quantified, nor can the freedom of the Iraqi people to choose their future. Same can be said about Gaddafi's son Hannibal, I mean Libya was an Italian colony in the past century, and when you look to old conflicts between Carthage and Rome it was another Hannibal, another son of dictator, who lead an army of mounted Elephants up through Spain, over the Alps and into Italy to wreak havoc on the Italian country side. We can't be having that again, better to knip the rose in the bud. So with General H's mind to pick, I was quick to make use as these thoughts circulated through my mind.
With a delicate tremor in my voice and an out reached hand, "Hi General H, I'm with San Diego States Homeland Security Program and would like to ask you a question."
He shook my hand lightly, not the handshake I'd expect from a general and despite my extensive height advantage and young age their was something about what rested behind those cool blackened sunshades that told me he could kill me in an instant if he so chose.
It came out less as a question than as an out of place remark, "Syria," if you think of the way Ralph froze up in a Christmas story as he tried to remember what he was asking Santa Clause for, "Syria, I wanted to ask you what you thought we should do about Syria. Specifically I positioned a proposition to divide Syria up into two countries, an Alawite's nation, as during the French colonial period with Assad's leadership and the rest of the Syria as its own independent nation with its own elected leadership. "I'm weary of breaking apart any countries in the Middle East."
Should we delegate a leading role Turkey, give them some missiles and planes to keep Assad's Air Force grounded?"
"Looking at the history of Turkey I'd be uneasy about that," H responding obviously knowing much that I had never even pondered. So much for that plan, I had hosted a former Turkish officer and had sufficient buy in to deal with the issue.
"What do you think we should do?" I asked with full interest.
With unflinching confidence he replied, "I think we need to start figuring out which of the rebels we can trust and start helping to arm them."
I've been forced to scrap out a living as a commissions only sales man for the passed three years while I work on masters of science in homeland security degree. I couldn't take it anymore, so I quit my day job. I had been carpet bagging full time for a few months now, selling carpet and flooring to the employs of all the defense industry company's employs, but quit, but not without gathering an array of contacts and the latest news. I was forward with all of them, say my company, but say what I was studying and stressing the importance of improving communication between the various federal agencies and our private sector suppliers. Money has never been my motivation, as many times as I've lied in interviews with employers knowing the framework of their interview criteria for sales positions. My motivation is Patriotism and the common good. This shall never change. Now, I write this blog, I've been working on a screen play, working on music, solicit the occasional sponsor and have some solid business plans if I could ever get some real capital, but have been content to expand my studies into Organized Crime to round out my HSEC expertise since its supposed to be an umbrella for the CIA and the FBI, yet with only part-time status and no financial aid, my preferred revenue of late has been tutoring.
I find teaching particularly rewarding, especially college level course work. I've tutored history and political science classes mainly, but found a particularly interesting pupil this past week. I'll avoid using her name, but a soft spoken thick accent responded to an add on craigslist asking for some help with her European History Class. A student at USD we scheduled a time to meet and help her prepare for her mid-term. Driving on campus I am always amazed with the new styles and trends, the short skirts, exposed g-strings and uggs boots so popular in my undergrad years were replaced by audacious tights thinly concealing virgina creases and rounded posteriors of well defined buttoxes as I attempt to fix my eyes on the ground several feet ahead of me and avoid gaulking at the scenery and native wild life. I call back the mysterious voice I had heard on my phone, "hi, its Theo, I think I'm here, where are you?"
She exclaims, "I'm here," I see a hand raise and a smiley face beneath a black hijab. I couldn't help but notice the unique balance of religious tradition and modernity. A carefully folded hijab, attached to a smart phone, mixed with a stylish t-shirt and fashionable tights competing with the allure of her competition.
We shook hands and quickly went to a study room to begin discussing her work. Before I drove out, she had only told me it was about European history. A subject I knew well, but with endless caveats and nuances to focus in on, it could have been any of the long list of historical narratives engraved in westerners identities, yet completely foreign, new and unknown to our Saudi guest. Racial equality and stereotyping are my biggest pet peeves. As hawkish as I am militarily, I'm a true liberal when its comes to social issues, racial smears and petty ignorance has always boiled the blood beneath my skin. My father had done this crazy thing as professor out in Connecticut and adopted an African American. The second youngest in our family, he was always my closest sibling. I had seen the discrimination time and time again, individuals would have never guessed we were brothers, and being that he was lighter skinned, believed to be of Caribbean African American descent, he had been mistaken as Arab before. Yet, the close study of Al-Qaeda and the organization build by Osama Bin Laden made me always think twice when a Saudi appears before me, especially when they appear shortly after reading a texts on the anatomy of terrorist organizations and the means with which they develop and recruit sleeper cells. I'd run into some other young Saudi's before, and in my line of questioning I quickly learned they were from Jebbah, the home town of our beloved Bin Laden family.
Its a delicate game, the Saudis are important partners for America, and many are talented and its understandable that they want to study in the United States. The Saudi King gives generously to the UC programs and its not a diplomatic relationship one wants to upset. America needs allies in the Middle East, and aside from Israel and Jordan, Qatar, Brahain, Kuwait, Afghanistan and Oman, its the closest thing we have and shouldn't make the mistake to immediately labeling one a troublemaker because of his city of origin. One had been held coming across the border from TJ, he had flunked a class and his visa was revoked, he was released. I met him shortly after this, with his friend Mana who originally informed me of his detainment from a Japanese tenant who studied with him at an English school. Hatim was clearly a trouble maker and a punk, maybe a terrorist, maybe a normal young man looking to get drunk, high and leid, but how can you really tell, Mana was kind enough and more serious about his studies, had family working in the embassies here and for the most part checked out. I stayed in contact with my professor on the issue, had my Japanese tenant keep an eye out and was sure that Hatim left the country as ge was supposed to while Manna went to study CSU Northridge with reasonable "Surveillance." Really? Is anybody following up on this, am I supposed too? Am I supposed to self-fund, can we at least make contact with his professor up there to be sure he's going to class and their's no suspicious purchases surrounding his credit card? I'll update you later, but it may make you consider your budgetary priorities and wonder whether you have me applying for jobs on craigslist or sworn in and on the job. So enough fun with the Jebbah boys, lets meet our Jebbah girl. 19 and full of smiles, conversational with her English, she was the daughter of a film maker who died of cancer when she was 10, she had studied hard and earned a scholarship from the Saudi Government to come study in the United States. If there's one thing I respect about the Saudi government, its that outside of the nepotism of the ruling family, the civil positions are filled by a strict academic meritocracy. So in front of me we have their merit, a women no less, confronting all of my preconceived notions of Saudi chauvinism. She had hired me to tutor her in European History. So without hesitation, I dived on in.
Her professors study guide and class outlines, along with reading took us through the French Revolution to the Industrial Revolution on up to the conditions leading into World War I. Well it was certainly subject matter I was qualified to teach, but had been years since I covered the material and had looked at the primary sources selected by the teacher. We started with Sieyes, French Cleric who posed populist questions in his pamphlet, "What is the 3rd State?" His argument was that in pre-revolutionary french, the church and the nobles, the first and second state had all the political power while the third state, everybody else, had essentially none despite the reality that its actions in fact, made the country work and everything else possible. He divided the third state into four parts, "the first group getting the raw materials or farming the land, the second group working in factories to convert them to products, the third group involved with distributing and selling them, and the fourth state composed of the service industry, the lawyers, doctors and journalists.
Her eyes were open. "So who are the enlightenment writers?" she asked.
We we discussed Locke, Rousseau, Voltaire and Montesique their ideas and how they lead to the French revolution. If only our founding fathers had kept with Locke's Life, Liberty, Health and Property as opposed to make the edit to Life, Liberty and the pursuit of happiness. We discussed the idea of human reason and how by looking back to the Greeks and Romans to rediscover the scientific method and applying it to society the social order began to be challenged. We discussed the motives of our actors, and why a cleric of the the first state, may benefit from publishing a pamphlet as controversial as, "What is the third state?" Her mind was circling, she was fascinated and full of questions. In the back of mind, I'm praying I don't indirectly cause her to go back to Saudi Arabia and trigger a revolution, but in the short-term, she needs to learn this material and get an A. Then came Human Rights, then revolution, then women's rights, then industrial reform, then capitalism and then marxism. What have I done, what are going to be the consequences of exposing her to such liberal ideas when she goes back to her home country. I care for her, somewhat protective but so excited by her enthusiasm for the material and steady flood of questions I continue with the process of enlightenment.
Women are so quick to criticize Arabs as backwards for covering their hair, yet in the midst of the flesh around, it allowed for level of focus on the material that may not have been so easily possible had she been in a short skirt and halter top. So we studied, I taught, and she learned for hours, and as we passed through the Estate-Generale and the formation of the National Assembly we reached Robespierre, the levee on masse, the formation of the public safety committee, the building of the guillotine and the reign of terror. The irony was lost on her, but pre-occupied my mind as trudged forward with the material. I realized, that our Predator Drones are our guillotines, and a passing truth blurring the definition of terrorist and the line separating us, a thought that maybe we are under the oppression of the pigs at Orwell's "Animal Farm" or maybe that we are terrorists whose victories allow us to define ourselves as otherwise. I realize I must avoid allowing my Homeland Security department from becoming a modern version of the Committee on Public Safety. His proponents referred to him as "The Incorruptible," Robespiere's address to the National Assembly echoes today,
"We must smother the internal and external enemies of the Republic or perish with it; now in this situation, the first maxim of your policy ought to be to lead the people by reason and the people's enemies by terror.
If the spring of popular government in time of peace is virtue, the springs of popular government in revolution are at once virtue and terror: virtue, without which terror is fatal; terror, without which virtue is powerless. Terror is nothing other than justice, prompt, severe, inflexible; it is therefore an emanation of virtue; it is not so much a special principle as it is a consequence of the general principle of democracy applied to our country's most urgent needs.
It has been said that terror is the principle of despotic government. Does your government therefore resemble despotism? Yes, as the sword that gleams in the hands of the heroes of liberty resembles that with which the henchmen of tyranny are armed. Let the despot govern by terror his brutalized subjects; he is right, as a despot. Subdue by terror the enemies of liberty, and you will be right, as founders of the Republic. The government of the revolution is liberty's despotism against tyranny."
So, when is the application of force just, when is it justified to suppress the chaos and turmoil of lawless revolution and bloodshed regularly sending the populace in a circle as the word revolution suggests; a refined and caring King Louis XVIth and an aristocracy that voted liberally and overwhelmingly in numbers to transform positions in the military and government to an academic meritocracy, replaced by fifteen years of terror and be-headings until Napoleon Bonaparte finally rises to power to become an emperor, waging wars from Russia and back across the channel to England to finally lose at waterloo with wet cannons impeding his triumph. So what can we make of such, when is the violence truly justified and not just an indulgence of man kinds darker sadism, justified by words cloaked with connotation but lacking in any tangible meaning?
I can tell you this, Al-Qadea is a death-cult, and the populaces of the Middle East and Northern Africa are tired of its ways, and as Kurtz journeys to "the Heart of Darkness" in Conrad's classic, civilization finds its nemesis in the perverse religiosity manifested by Al-Qaeda. Its a stubborn enemy we must kill, but must also understand, identify and learn to discern as a tumor from an otherwise healthy body that is the modernized and democratizing Islamic world. To survive such treatment, we must be sure that our patient is kept strong, propped up so that its natural antibodies can combat the tumor of Al-Qaeda alongside of us. Part of this is building up their state, pushing for reforms and addressing the legitimate grievances of the Middle East. Islamophobia has no place in modern International relations or foreign policy strategy, the Michelle Bauchmans and Mitt Romneys of the Republicans lost the election because of such ignorant gaffs and lack the support of the new generation of soldiers that has spent ten years working along side Muslims, understanding the nuances of ideology and managing to build nations from the rubble left by bombs.
I once asked a former marine who had served in Afghanistan what we should do about the area, he joked, "I don't know, shoot everything that moves." Even Osama called it the graveyard of empires, that why tried to draw us into the region to fight. We are such fools, we must learn from history, time to learn if Americans are truly exceptional or simply folly to the classic hubris of nearly every great Greek tragedy and hero's demise. Yet they are all dead and gone, and I am still here. We as Americans, stand strong as ever and stronger than any other that has come before.
Check.
With all the leftist criticisms of the Saudi family, the excesses of the princes and role of its money throughout the Middle East, one must balance such with the reality we need Saudi Arabia, we need its flow of oil, we need its support in crushing Al-Qaeda and we cannot afford another country spiraling into lawless chaos. So we play this game, I press for women's rights and municipal level democracy, we accept their youths into our universities, we buy their oil, they buy our government bonds and invest in our companies. They build madrassas, we build schools and while the graduates of their madrassas often fight the graduates of our schools in the rugged tribal lands of eastern Afghanistan, they invest in our arms suppliers; The Saudi king uses the oil revenues to hire Muhammed Bin Laden to build the shrines of Mecca and on 9/10 one of Muhammed Bin Laden sons meets with George Bush Sr. at a Carlyle group investors meeting as another one of his many sons gives the order to hi-jack four planes and crash them into the Twin Towers and Pentagon.
And with smiles and joy, my student loves her king for paying for her education and the opportunity to come out to America and study at a Catholic University in beautiful San Diego. So innocent, so hopeful and so optimistic. I asked a former CIA agent specializing in South America in your opinion, "what should we do with Venezuela?" to which he replied, "make nice so we can tell the Saudi's to go pound sand."
We move on to the Industrial Revolution. We read the transcripts from parliament inquiries into working conditions at the new factories innovating mass production and prompting rapid urbanization. We read out loud, I read the questions of the the MP, she reads the responses of a 23 year old factory worker that has been working since the age of six in a textile factory, lifting heavy treys that have prompted her back to be arched over like a 96 year old lady.
We walk to the ATM so that she can pay me for my lesson, the whole way she eagerly discusses Shias, nearly skipping as she teases their faith as a made up faith that never existed. She tells me the Shia faith tells its adherents, the way to get good luck and paradise, "is to inflict as much pain as possible on the Sunnis." I refer back to the American ideal, the first amendment and freedom of religion and question, "is the Saudi government doing anything to ease religious tension between the Saudis and Shias?"
She tells me, yes, "I have Shia friends, it doesn't matter to me," "the Shia used to kill us and spit in our food, so my Shia friend jokes the least they can do is walk on my shadow." I realize she's walking on mine.
The second time we meet she invites a colleague from India, and as American as a slum dog millionaire could be, he tells me his wishes to become a hollywood star. What was interesting to me, was the coi flirtation between the two, with Sid telling her, "you're out of my league." As he leaves to meet his brother at his apartment, I move away from the material and ask some questions about Jebbah.
I wasn't about to just lead with a question like, "Do you know the Bin Laden's?" so I brought up a slightly less controversial subject and from an intelligence stand point, much more productive.
"So, I always find these Saudi Princes to be interesting characters, have you ever met any."
She replies, "Ah yes, Abdul Aziz bin Fahd is my friend."
Really?
"Well I don't know him that well, but we've met and he sends me messages."
I'm slightly unsure what she means by this, does she subscribe to his twitter account or does he talk to her directly?
I ask her, "How did you meet?"
She asks, "Why are you asking me this."
I play it dumb, "No reason, I'm just interested."
Sid walks back in the study lounge and breaks the awkwardness, we get back into the Industrial Revolution. The session ends, and I take a bus with my pupil back to my car. Just before I exit, she asks, "What did he mean by out of my league?" I tried to explain to her it was a compliment, and felt bad for the difficulties she must face integrating into our wild society, yet impressed by her ability to do so while remaining true to her faith.
Before I even start my car I immediately follow up on my lead. Abdul Aziz bin Fahd, the grandson of King Fahd, the youngest and favorite child of the Saudi King. The media mogul who owns half Saudi's main media network, the opening speaker for the annual yacht show, owner of a palace in Jebbah and close confident of the deposed prime minister of Lebanon. So I can gather from the internet. We'll be digging deeper, trust not, but for now lets consider the challenge of opening up a line of communication. This is the person we need to be working with, he is very active in Syria and is exactly the person we need to coordinate with so we can figure out whose who's who on the ground and get some type of legitimate chain of command in preparation for the aftermath. His close relationship with deposed prime minister of Lebanon, Rafik Hairiri, and his active efforts to help the Rebels overthrow Assad make him an intelligence goldmine. Wealthy, resourced, active and western friendly, and I'm one 19 year old Saudi girl from opening up a line of communication. The next step is the tricky one, its delicate and I have to consult with some more experienced on how to proceed, but as Hezbollah units move into the south of Syria to assist Assad, the threat assessment evolves from WMDs being shipped to Hezbollah in lebanon in the event of Assad's collapse to Hezbollah grabbing them himself. While Saddam's WMDs programs may not have been as developed as Intel anticipated, allowing for the chemical weapons of Assad's Regime to slip into the hands of Hezbollah or remain loose in the aftermath of the regimes collapse would be highly irresponsible and while a full on American invasion is not something the American Public is going to support, we have to do something to earn a say in what comes of Syria after Assad goes and be sure that those WMDs are either secured or destroyed.
The interlink with Iran and its nuclear ambitions is obvious, with Russia cautious to allow for further American encroachment on his borders, Iran and Syria become proxies in the same old Cold War chess games we hoped would end with the fall of the Berlin Wall. A weakened Syria, is a weakened Iran, and optimal for America, Israel and Saudi Arabia as they buy time in negotiations with Ahmadinejad. While its a head ache for Turkey and a nuisance for Jordan, their both content not to see the Arab spring domino into collapses of their regimes. The Americans and Israelis feel the same. Iran tries to cause troubles in Bahrain because of our Naval presence, and if he can change the regime to Shiite regime he can kick out our fleet leaving Saudi Arabia vulnerable. We cannot afford to let that happen, sorry idealist, but its just not an option.
So here we are, with North Korea threatening thermal nuclear war, Iran enriching Uranium towards weapons grade and young democracies across North Africa likely facing the same domestic pressures to externalize problems and engage in warfare faced by Robespierre when Austrians and Prussians challenged his territorial sovereignty. Israel can only hope the old friendly admirals and air force of Murback's Egypt are still in control of their air force and unwilling to follow an order to strike, Libya leadership is friendly, but only barely in control, and the French have entered Mali to push Al-Qaeda out of the cities and into the deserts as Iran threatens to close the Straitz of Homz, potentially blocking off oil shipments and causing global oil prices to skyrocket should Israel or America so choose to pre-emptively strike Iranian nuclear reactors. Nobody knows what Pakistan will do, our naval fleet and our bases in Afghanistan are sitting ducks if they decide to use their nuclear weapons and along with that comes India and one must question whether Russia would keep to the sidelines. We saw in World War I how one assassination by an Anarchist prompted a complex chain of military alliances to bring us into an ugly world war. Economic woes often end with wars, so stagnant growth, uneasy recovery make conditions ripe for World War III. Debt weary and aging population demographics may drive a different result, besides its not too late to alter this apocalyptic ending. Romney losing the election sure helped. With sufficient pressure, Iran will back down from its nuclear ambitions and with enough outside help Assad can be removed from power and a more western friendly regime can be formed. But something has to give, America must be tough on Israel and its continued building of settlements in Palestinian territories, and the Administration must find the political courage and wherewithal to get the Israelis to stop this practice in preparation of an eventual two state solution. Meanwhile America needs to work to stabilize the Middle East, bringing investment and technocrats to these young middle eastern regimes birthed from the Arab spring, while paying particular care to our old friends in the region.
The real breakthrough, the crowning achievement that the Obama Administration can achieve in the midst of all this mess, is not a resolution of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, as praiseworthy of a feat as that may be, but a simple non-nuclear proliferation pact between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey. Its this pending arm race that must be halted, and its a place where John Kerry's state Department can realistically succeed. I cordially recommend the Obama Administration and Kerry's State Department hires me to help be sure they have the expertise and abilities needed to maneuver through this dangerous world of friends and foes.
I had a dream last night. I had a dream there was a lion. A beautiful and strong lion with a thick mane. I approached staring the lion directly in the eyes. I reached behind the lions beautiful mane and scratched behind its ears. It turned its head into mine and rolled over to the ground on its back allowing for me to rub its soft underbelly.
Those things we fear most can be turned to our most valuable assets if we approach them the right way.
Edmond Burke's Reflection on the french revolution sum it up best, "To make a government requires no great prudence. Settle the seat of power; teach obedience and the work is done. To give freedom is still more easy. It is not necessary to guide; it only requires to let go the rein. But to form a free government; that is, to temper together these opposite elements of liberty and restraint in one consistent work, requires much thought, deep reflection, a sagacious, powerful, and combining mind."
Checkmate.
Now enough with these silly chess games, lets get to work governing this world, get serious about the world's security threats and managing the economy in a way that brings about peace, prosperity and progress to the people.
