Sunday, July 20, 2014

Security Report: The Interlink between Iran and Hamas #Israel #Netanyahu #Kerry #Iran #Hamas #Gaza


Security Report: The Interlink between Iran and Hamas

    At root to a lasting Middle East process is the creation of a Palestinian State that formally recognizes a Jewish State of Israel, includes parts of East Jerusalem, and has connecting lands between the West Bank and Gaza. The largest obstacle to this end is Hamas and the continued influence of Hamas stems from its support by Iran and use by Iran's Jerusalem Force as a proxy to gain regional influence. The key to removing Hamas from a position of influence is ending Iran's support for Hamas, and effectively empowering the Palestinian Authority to be the more effective provider of basic necessities and unequivocal best hope for a better Palestinian future.

    For Iran to do this, and to prevent Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapon, the regime has to have a sense that the regime in Iran will survive if it ends support for Hamas, seeks peace with Israel and abandons its nuclear aspirations. Iran needs to be convinced, that efforts to obtain a nuclear deterrent will lead to pre-emptive strikes from Israel, Nato or the US and our regional partners that will bring immense and devastating destruction to the Iranian populace, not as a target, but as a consequence of inevitable nuclear fallout caused by the bombing of nuclear facilities and reactors.

   As Israel combats Hamas, it must also move to empower the Palestinian Authority with cooperative measures between Israeli charities and the Palestinian authorities to undermine deep seated racism and hatred, that acknowledge the factual realities of the situation, the legitimate grievances of both sides, while pushing us forward from impossible positions to negotiate or calls for destruction of either side, by the other side. If The United States of America, Great Britain, NATO, Russia, the Arab League and the UN can be brought to the same position, that we will recognize the Iranian regimes right to exist and end our policy of regime change and support for groups working towards such, if Iran halts all support for Hamas and other entities (ie., Hezbollah) as they seek to inflict wanton destruction on Israeli civilians and until they adjust their goal to the peaceful coexistence of Jews, Muslims, Christians and others embodied in International law and the treaty of Medina. Iran must also limit its nuclear programs to such minimal levels that Iran is both well below break-out capacity and its peaceful nuclear program is easily accessible and monitored to unequivocally be for purposes of energy and medicine, with no chance of it being used for weapons, even if the procurement of such a weapon is for the purpose of defensive deterrence or peace. Iran must place its support with the Palestinian Authority and pressure it to pursue a peaceful two-state solution with land swaps for areas possessing settlements. Netanyahu had mentioned, support for providing parts of East Jerusalem to the Palestinian state in exchange for a stronger line against Iran. There is opportunities for broad, permanent and lasting terms of peace in the middle east, that the formal parties of representation can be brought to, and while there may be intermediary, terrorist groups and political opportunists undermining those terms, the terms can be laid out and formalized as a treaty with formal tools of oversight to monitor enforcement of terms.

    Iran has to choose whether they want peace, or war, and they need to avoid the mistakes of Japan in Pearl Harbor that lead to the tragedy of Hiroshima. Let us not see a flawed world view on the part of Iran, or underestimation of what Barack Obama and the US is willing to do to defend Israel, or support for attacks on Southern Israel lead to a mushroom cloud over Tehran, or even the lesser danger, missile strikes on nuclear reactors setting back the nuclear program and spewing radiation over the Iranian populace as a result. From what the UN inspectors have shown, it is clear that Iran has sought a peaceful nuclear program as cover for a nuclear weapons program, to procure a nuclear deterrent to strengthen their position in negotiations with Israel and to embolden their hands to menace the governments at peace with Israel across the Arab world. This cannot, and will not be tolerated, and more time is not what is needed, more action is needed.

    What is clear, is that while Iran may not have much history of direct military aggression, it has a clear and established history of materially supporting terrorist organizations, including al-Qaeda in Iraq against US troops and Iraqi Civilians, Hamas in Gaza against Israeli Civilians, Hezbollah against the Lebanese civilians and government officials, Hezbollah against rebel groups in Syria and a combination of government and civilian targets of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the Emirates.

    Israel is willing to consider ending the blockade around Gaza, even willing to consider negotiating a time table to hand over east Jerusalem, but it will not negotiate with the terrorist organization Hamas, reward terrorist tactics, consider lifting the blockade to allow Iran to rearm Hamas, or allow for Iran to procure nuclear weapons. The US, Great Britain, Nato and the Arab League should not allow such either. The actions of Iran and Hamas dangerously risk the security of not only the region, but the entire world. United, we can negotiate a change of position and action on the part of Iran, that can minimize the influence of Hamas, empower more legitimate partners and stabilize the regions with a more comfortable balance of influence between the Sunni/Shi'ite spheres, with all at peace with Israel, each other and a clear path to Palestinian Statehood.   

Thursday, July 17, 2014

The Humanitarian Truce Called by Israel #Israel #Hamas #Gaza


The Humanitarian Truce Called by Israel
 #Israel #Hamas #Gaza 

      With 5 hours of peace, we have time to gasp a large enough amount of air to allow us to sort our the situation in Gaza. It continues to be clear, that despite widespread criticism of the blockade on Gaza and Civilian casualties resulting from Israelis defense from Hamas' rocket bombardment; that while the Israeli's take care to target valid military targets and avoid civilian casualties, Hamas indiscriminately fires rockets at civilian populations, even killing an innocent Israeli civilian. Fortunately, the Iron Dome, Israel's missile defense system is able to intercept the majority of the rockets fired with others simply missing. As we consider the ethical implications of such, we must remind ourselves that Israel is willing to stop its strikes on Hamas military targets and weapons cache's on one simple term, that Hamas stops firing rockets at Israeli border cities. Israel has no reason, and should not negotiate with Hamas, which is a terrorist organization, using political violence directed at civilians in an effort to persuade political attitude. Eventually, Hamas will run out of rockets, or Israel will march its tanks into Gaza, something we would all prefer to avoid. The surest way for the blockade to be removed, is for Hamas, to stop firing rockets, recognize Israel, denounce terror and stop using outside aid as a means of smuggling in weapons and explosives from Iran and other military supporters.

       While the creation of Israel undoubtedly caused a refugee crisis with lingering unresolved issues today, these realities have to be kept in the context of European history, particularly Nazi Germany and the holocaust, but also a history of Jewish persecution in Europe. It is important to remember that the amount of Palestinians displaced at the time of Israel's creation, was equal to the amount of Jews kicked out of Middle Eastern countries in retaliation. It has to be reminded that almost the entire middle east declared war against Israel on two separate occasions, and that both times the surrounding countries were humiliated in defeat, and that it was only then that Israel occupied the territories of Gaza and the West Bank for clear defensive military purpose. Despite ample available lands, few middle eastern countries, aside from Jordan, and to a lesser extent Lebanon, have done anything to accommodate or take in Palestinian populations. It also has to be reminded that the Israeli's have made stalwart efforts to provide for the Palestinians, continuing to extend the olive branch, considering two state solutions and even open to offering part of East Jerusalem. All of these items that Palestinians so need; however, need to be contingent on peace in Gaza and for that matter, the West Bank, and can be advanced with significant changes in the behavior of outside influences, particularly Iran, whose clandestine Qud's Forces are obviously providing the weapons to Hamas, just as they provided Al-Qaeda with weapons to kill Americans in Iraq and Hezbollah weapons to target the legitimate government in Beirut. The Palestinians have been used as pawn, for Arabian Princes with a sense of Islamic guilt for being wealthy benefactors of their governments' peace with Israel and oil sales to America, and an Iranian Republic looking to establish itself as the legitimate protector of the Muslim world while gaming its regional interests, not least of which include the wealthier oil fields of the Arabian Peninsula. While the International Community should engage with Israel to facilitate peaceful Palestinian/Israeli relations and address some of the humanitarian stresses at root, it cannot expect Israel to make concessions to Hamas while it launches rockets, flies drones and launches missiles at Israel. As these actions stop, Israel will stop its military operations. It is this simple, and the United States and the United Nations, should emphasize the fact that Hamas is behaving as terrorist organization, that the rocket attacks jeopardize not only Israeli civilians, but also will illicit a lethal response from Israel, a country with a very real need to protect itself and a fundamental right to self defense. The efforts on the part of Israel to use both restraint and precision, are the story, as they lay under siege from belligerents that have failed in the most basic capacity to govern Gaza.

Let us look at Hamas Policies, and how they have affected the well-being of Gaza residents.

1. Hamas has supported the launch of rockets over their border towards Israeli towns with intent to terrorize residents into either moving or increasing support for an end to the Gaza blockade.

The effect of this policy has been counter-productive, while Israeli residents in the border towns face the annoyance of bomb sirens and visits to bomb shelters, the Iron Dome military defense system as limited damage to one civilian death and limited structural damage. The attacks have hardened animosity towards Gaza residents who were once sympathetic to their suffering and supportive of a peaceful two state solution.

2. Hamas has used aid and material shipments to smuggle in guns, weapons, rockets, missiles and other bomb making materials.

The effect of this policy has resulted in the imposition of a blockade around Gaza, reducing the supply of weapons, but also construction materials, medical equipment and food supplies.

3. Hamas has attempted to use tunnels to smuggle in goods and weapons from Egypt.

The tunnels have been targeted in strikes, preventing the flow of weapons, but also reducing the flow of goods and at times killing civilians.

4. Hamas has reached out to surrounding Arab and Muslim countries to present violations of UN resolutions and norms as War Crimes and violations of international law.
    The Result has been that the UN is viewed with even less legitimacy and primarily delegated to the reduced role of a conduit for relief to Africa and the Middle East, rather than the primary forum for international law, relations and legitimate military action. The UN appears blatantly biased against the Israelis to the extent it seems anti-semitic, weakening its ability to mitigate disputes relating to not only Israel, but also the surrounding regions,  on nuclear proliferation and devastating humanitarian crisis promulgated by extended civil war in Syria that has contaminated Lebanon, Jordan and particularly Iraq.

    Hamas has failed the people of Gaza, it has only brought misery and death, and its policies as is, will always only bring misery and death. The people of Gaza cannot expect to garner empathy from the international community, while it calls for on God for the destruction of Israel, spreads social media hashtags such as #hitlerwasright and exalts suicide bombers as community heros. The people of Gaza need to change their attitudes and actions. Any weakness in resolve on the part of the West (or any responsible modern decision-maker), to begin justifying these types of pathetic tactics, sloppy operations and terroristic strategies needs to halt. Gaza is a mess because Hamas has inept leaders, enacting policies that will continue to bring misery to Gaza's populace and risk larger regional warfare that could easily escalate into a third world war.

    Hamas has to halt the weapons attacks, Israel should be considering demanding their whole sale surrender and escalating the conflict to get it, but taking the high route, is the better course for Israel diplomatically and strategically. Unlike Palestine, it is a real country with global public relations to consider. Its Iron dome protects it, but it must show that Israeli strikes are a response to Hamas aggression and being used to weaken Hamas' grip on the territory and ability to wage attacks. If Israel enters Hamas with its tanks, it must also bring behind them substantial humanitarian relief. To address the very real and authentic concerns about outside aid cargo hiding smuggled contraband used to attack Israeli civilians, the aid should be channeled through Israeli security review capabilities, with the involvement of Israeli charity organizations to direct it towards the appropriate parties in Gaza. The history of the Jews, prevents Israel from becoming the monster it left Europe to avoid, but it also must defend itself aggressively and take the lead on humanitarian relief for the Gaza population to undercut the legitimacy of Hamas, to prevent the continued flow of weapons into Gaza and most importantly, to show that they do care about the well-being of peaceful Gaza civilians.  

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Addressing Immigration influx along Sante Fe Borders.




Addressing Immigration influx along Sante Fe Borders  

   Congress should fund the request made by Barack Obama to help expedite the processing while improving the quality of detention facilities along the border.  The children under care of the United States of America need to be provided the utmost care.  Many of the problems circulate around the fact that it is often difficult to locate the parents of the children before their hearings creating a need for alternative options, particularly as it pertains to immigrants from central America where there are often significant delays to the return to their home countries that Mexican immigrants do not face.  

    With close to 100,000 young migrants flooding our border from Central American countries, it is time for the Commonwealth countries, America and India, threw the Episcopalian church, the global community threw the Catholic Church and the United States threw the State Department and Peace Corps to come together to allocate $750,000,000 in immediate, and 250,000,000 in annual budgets, to build 500 faith-based boarding schools in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador to accommodate the children that have been sent to the United States that are currently under the care of Homeland Security, ICE and Border Patrol. There is a tremendous opportunity to reach across barriers of faith and state, to address the humanitarian situation in a way that complies with US law and avoids undercutting the prospects for these countries to improve standards of living and upsetting tensions in Texas where communities and school districts are reluctant to absorb the population. Schools built to house and educate 200 students each, can be built and maintained, with teachers provided by the peace corps, materials by the state department, in addition to funds raised by the Catholic and Episcopalian churches to augment personnel from their respective diocese to provide additional care.

   The US can work with Mexico to improve the workings of Mexico's Southern Border and increase social marketing campaigns directed towards the vulnerable populations of central America to dissuade the dangerous decision to entrust their children's care to mirky promises of a life in America, with which their transit has been capitalized upon by drug cartels as a decoy for their drug smuggling operations. Improved investments in boarding schools in the their home countries, is a far better way to provide for their care and relieve some of the stresses of their parents, without separating them from their parents indefinitely, or overwhelmingly exhausted foster care services in the United States. Expansion in the peace corp can effectively provide teachers, while creating jobs for recent college graduates with particularly high unemployment rates, opening up career paths in teaching and with the State Department. These actions can serve to improve the United States public image in these regions while bolstering our positive impact, gradually pushing these regions beyond the old cold war paradigm of right wing military units vs. marxist leftists, to the moderate progressive answer of market-based democracies with common law norms. I'm calling on the State Department to contribute 250,000,000, the Episcopalian church, 250,000,000 and the Catholic Church 250,000,000 to give these children a future and their countries the promise of a well educated group of leaders to transform and modernize their countries economies and government. 


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Friday, July 11, 2014

On the Gaza and Israeli Border


On the Gaza and Israeli Border

     Seeing tensions escalate along the Gaza and Israeli border is a tragic regression from the progress that has recently been made over the years. America has increasing sought to be a balanced arbitrator in disputes and while we recognize the occasional violations of international norms on the part of Israel, the refugee crisis initially caused by the creation of Israel and the complications to the peace process created by the formation of settlements in the occupied territories, the United States of America recognizes Israel's Jewish identity and right to defend itself from terrorist aggression. While we mourn civilian casualties, the tactics of Hamas has made them inevitable and the surest way to prevent such, is for Hamas to end its rocket bombardment on Israel and for the Palestinians to end their support for terrorist organizations. We are disappointed to see the Arab League's refusal to recognize the Jewish character of the Israeli State and feel that it goes against the lessons of history and teachings of the prophet Mohammed. I share concerns; however, for the treatment of non-Jews living in Israel and palestinian civilians negatively affected by Israeli occupation and believe that constructive diplomatic engagement can continue to address these issues as the peace process moves forward. While Hamas is appropriately labeled as terrorist a organization, we recognize that its popularity rests in part on its ability to provide basic services to the populace and that its military wing is only a part of its organization. We also understand the frustrations with the Palestinian Authority and empathize with allegations of corruption. Ultimately, however, the continued hostility towards Israel works against the interests of the Palestinian public and those instigating violence are neither pleasing God or advancing the interests of the Palestinian people or their Israeli neighbors; they are instead, serving their own egos for selfish or political gain. The United States is committed to working with Arab League nations on development and economic growth, security and issues relating to our common humanity; however, our defense of Israel and commitments to NATO are unequivocal. We continue to call on responsible leaders of the Arab and Muslim worlds to form unity governments capable of simultaneously addressing the legitimate grievances of their populaces, while doing what is necessary to maintain basic law and order without scapegoating outside forces.    

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Insights from the review of ISIS propaganda, "The Return of the Khilafah."

Insights from the review of ISIS propaganda, "The Return of the Khilafah."  

  With direction from the Professors of our homeland security faculty, we have been provided the first issue of ISIS's magazine, an item that is actually published in English.  The colors and texture of it resemble closer to a Jihadist graphic novel and it provides a revealing look at not only their propaganda, but also what they are thinking.  Most revealing, is there interpretations of end time prophecies in the Qur'an and how they are applying them to current events.  The realities of these interpretations are important to US, NATO, UN and regional decision makers.  It would be foolish for NATO to play into end time prophecies, as it would embolden the group with zeal and tenacity that can prove difficult to defeat, in light of acceptable measures of force according to current international norms.   In first addition of Dabiq, "The Return of the Khilafah," the success of Ramadan is emphasized as Muslim unity is called upon, and jihad against the cliche cast of villains including Jews, Crusaders and Romans are promulgated.  They praise the restoration of the Caliphate promising a return of, "your dignity, might, rights and leadership," preaching a multi-ethnic, non-racial order that, "if kings were to taste this blessing, they would abandon their kingdoms and fight over the this grace."  The magazine endorses terrorism, promising to, "trample nationalism and the false idol of democracy," which it views as deviant in nature.   It explores ISIS philosophy, which neatly divides the world into two camps, those devoted to Islam and those against it, claiming the second to be lead by Russia and America, "mobilized by the Jews."  The imagery contrasts triumphant jihadi fighters standing heroically with AK47s on their backs and black flags waving with the carnage of US bombing including bullet ridden corpses, stacks of body bags and dead children.  They reveal their close reading of conservative think-tank, the CATO institute and use it to express the intensions and attitudes of the West, using its descriptions of ISIS to validate their influence and prominence.
 
    The magazine calls for recruits from around the world to come into the region and help in the fighting and in the establishment of the Caliphate State, looking particularly for doctors, engineers, experts in Islamic Jurisprudence and administrators.  As an America politician in closely contested election campaign, the journal summarizes ISIS leadership's following successes;

-returning rights and property to their rightful owners
-pumping millions of dollars into services that are important to the Muslims
-the state of security and stability enjoyed by the areas under the Islamic State's authority
-ensuring the availability of food products and commodities in the market, particularly bread
-the reduced crime rate
-the flourishing relationship between the state and its citizens

This is clear propaganda overlooking the fact that the limited provision of services is funded by a combination of illicit activities from smuggling to poaching with heavy donations from charity front companies co-mingling funds with those going towards weaponry purchases.

  Provided room for repentance, the journal reports on hundreds of former Iraqi government personnel repenting for their involvement with the Iraqi government.  The publication ends with this prophecy,


“The Hour will not be es- tablished until the Romans land at al-A’maq or Dabiq (two places near each oth- er in the northern country- side of Halab).

Then an army from al-Ma- dinah of the best people on the earth at that time will leave for them. When they line up in ranks, the Romans will say, ‘Leave us and those who were taken as prisoners from amongst us so we can fight them.’

The Muslims will say, ‘Nay, by Allah, we will not aban- don our brothers to you.’ So they will fight them.
Then one third of them will flee; Allah will never forgive them. One third will be killed; they will be the best martyrs with Al- lah. And one third will con- quer them; they will never be afflicted with fitnah.
Then they will conquer Constantinople.

While they are dividing the war booty, having hung their swords on olive trees, Shaytān will shout, ‘The [false] Messiah has fol- lowed after your families [who were left behind.]’ So they will leave [for their families], but Shaytan’s claim is false. When they arrive to Sham he comes out.

Then while they are pre- paring for battle and filing their ranks, the prayer is called. So ‘Isa Ibn Maryam (‘alayhis-Salam) will de- scend and lead them.

When the enemy of Al- lah sees him, he will melt as salt melts in water. If he were to leave him, he would melt until he per- ished, but he kills him with his own hand, and then shows them his blood upon his spear.”

   The take away from this, is that the failed administration of Anbar province by the Shi'ite dominated Baghdad government, combined with inaction in Syria, opened room for the well-funded and armed ISIS to grow in influence, to move across the porous Syrian border and begin garnering legitimacy and influence by providing only menial and basic government services, confronting an Iraqi National Army that proved unwilling to fight.  My fear is that attacks on Turkey will trigger a NATO alliance retaliation that fulfills the above prophecy.   The northern countryside of Halab described above, is a land between Aleppo, Syria and Antakya, Turkey, a point of attack that would be very logical for any coordinated efforts to defeat ISIS militarily.  Their end time prophecy emboldens them to sustain massive losses, with the death of 1/3 of all Muslims predicted, hardening their positions, the 1/3 who are anticipated to die are those with the weakest faith, before turning their march towards Constantinople, or modern day Istanbul.   Any military response, that therefore involves ground troops, needs to prevent providing them such a battle, and so if military action becomes necessary, it would have to involve a tight control on the Iraqi, Syrian border and total occupation of the fertile farm lands surrounding the Tigris and Euphrates river.  ISIS has little military equipment capable of preventing sizable forces from seizing control of the lands.  US air power could effectively shut down the flow of food and goods into the cities.   To avoid urban warfare and minimize casualties, a combination of psy-ops and generous provisions of food for those individuals surrendering to the US forces and entering into designated safe zones with multi-tiered security would quickly cause the Sunni tribes to turn on ISIS as they did against Al-Qaeda during the Sunni Awakening, turning Anbar province back over to the Shi'ite dominated national government would only create a return to the same problems, so today's proposal to consider is the formation of a Saudi administered semi-sovereign state still formally part of Iraq with permanent US, NATO and UN peacekeepers present as a means of calming the province.  Anbar Province would serve as a Sunni buffer for any Iranian lead Shi'ite aggression towards the Arab Peninsula.   If America can secure UN security council approval for these actions, it could potentially approve Russia to lead a similar response in Syria, marching from the Iraqi border towards Damascus and Aleppo as a unity of Syrian and moderate rebel forces granted amnesty march from the North and West to squeeze the Islamist brigades, preventing the formation of a Caliphate that would seek to expand out indefinitely, conquering with terrorism and forcing conversion by the sword.  The real question; however, is any of this really worth it?  The United States of America may be far wiser to turn its attention, focus its energies and invest its resources on problems easier to solve and lands closer to home.




Monday, July 7, 2014

In Defense of Progress, Liberty, Civilization and Humanity


In Defense of Progress, Liberty, Civilization and Humanity
by Theo Johnson

     My dear reader, I am not hear to tell you what you want to hear, I am hear to speak to you with honesty about obvious truths, so if you are capable of maturity and facing the realities of the world in which we live, please continue reading.  If you wish to act as an ostrich digging its head in the sand, a child hiding within his imagination, then go on with your sales calls, you're sporting events and you're silly celebrity worship. Citizenship shares its duties and responsibilities,  awareness on the events shaping the world is certainly one of them and this is part of the job.  

    Among the contributing factors to the collapse of the Roman Empire was its conversion to Christianity and the abandonment of classic Roman Virtue. One of the contributing factors to the strength and success of Washington was the Enlightenment's rejection of religious superstitions and the study of Ancient Greek and Roman texts to reveal the keys to their success and power. When we consider the future and the world we want for our children, we need to ask ourselves seriously what as a country we are willing to do to defend our way of life? Should we submit to a God that is not our own, be slaves to a morality that serves to weaken our resolve, or should we not stand behind the idea of enlightenment, of freedom, of liberty and fight on our feet. As you reflect and review the history of the world, shy a brief period after the Vietnam war, their has always been war and so why or how can one scientifically conclude there ever won't be war. Even in that period of American peace, the Russians fought in Afghanistan and varying campaigns waged in South America between communist guerrilla groups and right wing paramilitary groups. Radical forms of liberalism became mainstream in the 70s and we moved astray from the underpinning mores and values that had contributed to American Greatness. The liberalism of our forefathers was one of Enlightenment, heavily influenced by Hellenistic Greece and the Delian League and the Roman Republic. Our country was not founded as a Christian nation, it was founded in a Masonic Ceremony and the Democratic Republic formed, was never meant to violate notions of either natural or divine law. There was no mention of capitalism, communism or socialism; rather and idea of a polity and representative forum for free men to discuss and determine the needs of the Republic and with virtue commit themselves to its preservation. The attention was not on negative rights, but positive rights. There was no concept of guarantees, rather an expectation that ideals need be defended and fought for. Western Civilization has long been at war with the Persians of the East, and even in such primitive times, the battle was viewed by the great Greek orators at the Athenian pantheon as a struggle between a people shedding the yoke of mysticism and religion, liberating themselves from the superstitions of religion and a people in the East elevating their leaders to Gods and demanding total submission. The struggle between the East and West has raged long before Jesus, long before Mohammed and has extended along borders far beyond Israel. There has been efforts to make Americans feel guilty for our greatness, our exceptionalism, our victories and our success. The reality, outside the weakness of 70s style liberalism, is that the people of the United States of America are of an industrious nature, breeding the finest warriors and the most advanced military the world has ever known.

     Our failures in Vietnam, were not on the battle field, they were within our own media, using the anecdotes of the Tai Pai masacre and the Tet Offensive to skew the public's perception of the fighting away from one within which we were steadily winning, with victory a simple matter of increasing our pressure on the Ho Chi Min trail serving as the Viet Kong supply line, cutting the supply of weapons and goods from China to break their resolve and will to fight, moving our strategy away from one of retaliatory deterrence of Dulles to one determined to pound our enemy into submission. In Iraq and Afghanistan, our extensive military successes have been questioned for the high cost, but perhaps our biggest mistakes have been in the realism of our ends. Democracy when it works right, is certainly more functional and stable means of government, but it has pre-requisites that the region lacks. Before you can have democracy, you need high rates of literacy, a plurality of parties, notions of religious tolerance and culture where within disputes are solved in the political forum and mitigated by independent courts. Simple voting often leads to the tyranny of the majority, leading the majority to oppress a minority, which is driven in its desperation to violent rebellion, causing civil war. While the idealism of American ends in Iraq and Afghanistan is admirable, if the US is drawn back into Iraq by the aspiring Caliphate of the Levant, then we need to reflect hard on the mistakes of our most recent military engagements, and look back to the great military leaders of history to find the keys to success.

     The United States, is fortunate, it is in a period where it has professional military, experienced in fighting, hardened by numerous tours of duty in the very regions where it is most likely to be called to re-engage. The Military of the United States knows the towns and cities of Anbar province very well, it has known friends and known enemies in the region. With a well educated and athletic public, the United States has the knowledge and experience in the template of current armed forces, that if necessary, can be taught to an expanding military called to duty. We have learned the value of boots on the ground, the lessons of pre-mature departure and the challenges democratizing the Middle East. The Islamists have been given ample opportunities at political power, to participate in democracy, but time and time again their unwillingness to engage pragmatically, to move beyond old wounds and avoid anti-Americanism and anti-Semitism derail and undermine hopes for successful and tolerable Islamic Republics. The United States has made every effort to show that it is not at war with Islam, or Muslims, yet Islam has allowed for too many fatally flawed leaders to scapegoat their own failures on the West and on Israel. Ignorance leads the depraved and uneducated to point to misinterpretations of the Qu'aran to justify the spew of hatred and practice of terror. The West has played the impartial arbitrator, prosecuting its own for unlawful acts of violence, criticizing its partners and allies when human rights abuses were perpetrated and hardheadedly sought to improve the standards of living in the Middle East by providing them democracy, enterprise and modern security forces. George Bush cautioned the Iraqis that the United States could not indefinitely sustain the level of support, that they would need to learn to stand on their own and fight for the freedoms and liberties they value. It was clear, they needed to move beyond ethnic rivalries and form a civic forum that sought compromise and pragmatic discussion. Greed, selfishness, the personal aggrandizement and pride of ethnic and religious leaders, from Sadr to Baghdadi, Khomeni to Al-Malaki, have undermined Iraq's transformation, bringing it to the verge of disintegration. The inability of the Muslim Brotherhood to look beyond the Qu'aran, to listen to the well read and educated leaders of liberalism instrumental to the toppling of the old Autocrats, sealed their fate, unwilling to compromise with the military, the women, the courts and the various minorities, protests continued and the sparseness of food reserves forced the generals to act and remove Morsi from power. The Islamist trouble makers of Libya, used violence to interfere with the democratic process, kidnapping their elected leaders, attempting to intimidate them into compliance with archaic standards and backwards ambitions. Certainly, there are Americans and Jews that have advocated and done wrong in the Middle East, but those examples of wrong cannot be used to skew and justify the whole sale hostility towards these two nations, that have served as valuable partners in the areas where the Muslim world has thrived. A vacation in Dubai, a visit to Doha, a pilgrimage to Mecca and voyage to Riyadh clearly show that a rejection of Islamic radicalism, an embrace of science and trade is the surest means to a higher standard of living, even as faith continues to be an important part of their daily lives.

     The United States and its allies, have no choice but to protect themselves and as Civil War looms in Iraq and nuclear reactors turn in Iran, the United States must ready itself for the worst, while continuing to push for the best. Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, become the more realistic template for success in the Middle East, where tough authoritative regimes responsively manage the profits of oil sales to fund impressive architectural and infrastructure projects, investing heavily in loyal citizens and research institutions capable of unveiling and spreading the knowledge necessary for thriving modern metropolises. Faith continues to exist, but it is removed and separated from the barbarism of terror, and its proponents are dealt with harshly. These countries are not perfect, but they are headed in the right direction for they are countries where like America, merit, enterprise and hard work are rewarded. They have increasingly diversified economies with improving levels of education, healthcare, science and literature to augment a growing understanding of their history, embrace of the cosmopolitan world and vision for their future. Such models, need to become a template for success in Iraq, as well as Afghanistan and while the mediterranean nature of Tunisia, Libya and Egypt provide better promise for democracy, these young polities need to learn to walk before they can learn to run. Literacy rates, religious tolerance, education systems, legal systems and security apparatus need to be established before democracy can truly thrive and outside support must prioritize these developments.

    Strong bonds of community, focused industriousness and agriculture, an emphasis on education, investment in technology and celebration of the sciences have allowed Israel to transform the arid lands of Palestine into the magnificent nation of Israel in a matter of decades. The Palestinians live in squalor because they have continued to wage attacks on their neighbor, promote terror, violence and suicide as political tools, preferring the hand outs of international aid to self-sufficiency and development. They preferred religion to education and chose to dwell on the victimization of the past over the opportunities of today. I have long empathized with the unfortunate realities of the Palestinian predicament, and called foul when the Israelis have violated acceptable norms of defense, but our patience is thinning and the excuses on the part of the Palestinian Authority are running dry.

    Popular conspiracy theories are misguided, the CIA, Mi6 and Moused are not omnipotent forces conniving in conspiracy behind every explosion and armed group, the Quds of Iran and continued influence of Russia share a far larger share of the blame for the flood of AK47s, rockets and IEDs interfering with the democratic process, with a direct role in the development of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Al-Qaeda in Iraq and the arming of Hamas. As a 7 headed dragon whose various heads bite at each other, the monsters Iran has created to fight Israelis and Americans have come to challenge its own client states in Syria and Baghdad. These groups can be reigned in if Iran, and there other private donors from Arabia so chose, and if Irani, Iraqi and Syrian Leaders are willing to make the necessary compromises with the West, Israel and Sunni South, our shared interests can still bring us together to coordinate a response to ISIS in Anbar province and eastern Syria. Such collaboration can serve as faith and trust building measures, mending the drift that has occurred since 9/11. All parties need to responsibly ease our narrow self interest to recognize our collective security concerns. Partitioning our spheres of responsibility while respecting our base line security expectations, may be the surest path to a stable and improving Middle East. While there is no reason to redraw lines in the sand, there is a need to aim for more realistic ends, improve our priorities and provide for more regional autonomy to accommodate deep cultural and ethnic differences.

     The United States of America seeks peace in the Middle East, a mutual respect under God and an improving standard of living for the people everywhere, but let us make no illusion about the fact that the United States of America will protect its populace offensively if necessary. Rights of sovereignty and self-determination are contingent on the destruction of terrorist networks and avoidance of nuclear proliferation. The flow of money and weapons to armed insurgent groups from Nigeria to the Philippines cannot be accommodated and regime survival depends on cooperation around these matters. The United States and our allies has benevolently used our men and treasure to make stalwart efforts to improve the standards of living in the Islamic world, spreading civilized democracy and attempting, admittedly with as many failures as successes, to also guide economic development. If hostile actions continue to be directed against the United States of America and our various regional allies and friends; the United States is not going to respond with the same altruism of the past 13 years; rather our objectives will be moderated to those basic objectives that have long defined military success prior to the misdirected campaigns for Hanoi and Fallujah. If the United States is forced to enter into Syria, Iran or return to Anbar province, our mission will be simple, to defeat the enemy by breaking his will to fight, to disarm him and to destroy his capacity to fight in the future. We call on the free world to recognize the importance of these necessary ends and not allow our sympathies and guilt to allow our children to be made slaves.  For if we are an evolved species in a fight over limited resources than our moral prerogative is to defend those resources for our own and protect them from our enemy. There is a need for coalitions, of course, for allies, and effective management of resources that will provision enough resources for the many. But when our enemies; however, are aggressively seizing control of resources and territory to fund activities to both our and our allies detriment, we need to fight to procure control of those resources and territories from our enemies, entrusting them into the hands of virtue as necessary to preserve the cultures of the magnanimous. While sheep surely fear the eagle that feasts on their lamb, we can not afford to sympathize with the lamb and waste our time training eagles to act as sheep. Our enemy is patient, he does not concern himself with political polls or keep his time according to 24 hour news cycles, he keeps his time in decades with the lessons of history in mind, and to this reality we must adapt if we wish to achieve victory. We need to wise up, stop charging the commodore's flag and instead scythe the commodore.  We cannot pretend that our fight with Terrorism and Islamic radicalism is a simple matter that can be won half-heartedly, with our military at war and our fellow countrymen racking up credit card debt in the practice of consumerism.  Victory depends on us coming together as a country, overcoming both corruption and internal weakness, putting aside our differences and understanding that our struggle for survival depends on our collaboration and team work, our united efforts and common ties as countrymen and a people, determined to stand with resolve and mobilize for success. There is still hope for peace, something we must pray for, but I must responsibly caution that the July 21st deadline is on the horizon and fast approaching.  We must therefore, prepare for war.  ISIS alters our calculus, provides a common foe that may bring regional rivals together, perhaps averting a larger war by providing the impetus for collaboration and compromise, but America will hold its line on Iran's nuclear program and not take any options off the table in its dealings with either Iraq, Syria or Iran. We call on our allies and partners to hold the same position and stand with us in defense of progress, liberty, civilization and humanity as we give diplomacy every opportunity to work and avert an escalation of military operations.