An Enduring Peace between Russia and the West Starts in Ukraine

  The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has wrought devastating consequences, exacting a horrific toll in human lives and economic devastation. Casualty figures continue to climb on both sides, with thousands of soldiers and civilians dead or wounded. Beyond the immediate battlefields, the war has destabilized the global economy, driving up energy prices across Europe and contributing to widespread inflation. The ripple effects of this conflict are felt far beyond the borders of Russia and Ukraine, underscoring the urgent need for a peaceful resolution. The cost of continued fighting, both in human suffering and economic hardship, is simply too high to bear.  

  Any viable solution to this crisis must be grounded in a realistic understanding of Russia's geopolitical interests. Russia is a major power with legitimate security concerns, particularly regarding its naval bases in Crimea. These bases hold strategic importance for Russia, providing access to the Black Sea and beyond. Ignoring this fundamental reality will only hinder the pursuit of peace. A lasting settlement must acknowledge Russia's role in the region and address its concerns in a way that accommodates their key national interests.   

  Equally crucial is the principle of self-determination, particularly for those regions of Ukraine with predominantly Russian-speaking populations. These communities have legitimate concerns about their cultural identity and political future. A peace agreement must provide mechanisms for these populations to express their will and ensure their voices are heard. This could involve granting a degree of autonomy or special status to these regions, allowing them to maintain their cultural heritage and linguistic traditions, while remaining within the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine or otherwise provide a mechanism for a free and fair plebiscite that allows residents to determine if their regions will remain in Ukraine or become independent. 

  From the Russian perspective, NATO expansion into Ukraine represents a direct threat to their national security. This concern, while perhaps viewed differently in the West, is analogous to how the United States would react to Russia deploying nuclear weapons in Cuba or China establishing a large military base in Mexico. Such actions would be perceived as unacceptable provocations, destabilizing the regional balance of power. Understanding this perspective is crucial for finding a diplomatic solution that addresses Russia's security concerns and prevents further escalation.  A traditional tenant of realism is the cold war was to respect Russian power, the Soviet Union has long collapsed and Russia should not persist to be held as an arch enemy of the United States requiring zero some geo-strategic logic; rather the United States should be attempting to find areas of cooperation on overlapping concerns like the threat of Islamist political movements.  Russia is much like a black bear in a forest, fierce and vicious but beautiful in her way so long as you do not encroach on her hunting grounds. Both Obama and Biden made the mistake of speaking condescendingly to Russia about abstract liberal ideals while showing weakness on the ground. This arrogant hypocrisy was provocative to Russian, prompting aggression like a dare.  

 Ultimately, achieving peace will require compromise. Ukraine may need to accept the reality of some territorial losses, similar to how Italy ceded Nice and Savoy to France during the unification under Victor Emmanuel II. However, this should not come at the cost of Ukraine's political freedom. Ukraine must retain the right to chart its own course, free from Russian interference. This includes the opportunity for closer integration with the European economy and the West. Furthermore, strict regulations regarding the type and deployment of weapons within the autonomous or independent regions, such as Crimea and the Donbas, will be essential for maintaining stability. Through a process of democratic self-determination for the Russian-speaking populations, coupled with guarantees of Ukrainian sovereignty and economic integration with the West, and with the addressing of legitimate security concerns of all parties, lasting peace can be achieved.  When you deal with Russia, you must speak to her with respect while always showing strength on the ground. She is a powerful black bear, but given enough forest to call its own, that forest and bear can become a barrier protecting Europe from threats like a rising China, after all if it weren't for the fierceness of the Russian Bear, Hitler may have completed the holocaust and this essay would have been written in German.