Thursday, September 20, 2018

Pulling out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and Reinstalling Sanctions.

While efforts to negotiate with Kahmenei's regime in Iran were appropriate, the United States of America should have walked away and never accepted the terms of the deal Barack Obama and Jon Kerry were so desperate to make. Their negotiating style was laughable as they clumsily applied the Harvard mentor guide to negotiations intended for firm to firm business negotiations which allowed Rouhani and Zarif to walk all over them as if they were tourists shopping in a Bazaar. Sanctions relief helped lead to Assad's victory in Syria, prolonged the conflict in Yemen, undermined the sovereignty of Iraq, further destabilized Lebanon, promoted the terrorist capabilities of both Hamas and Hezbollah while possibly helping to prop up Madura's regime in Venezuela by helping provide illicit cash proceeds from the illegal drug market managed by the Iranian and Hezbollah linked former Vice President and current minster of Industries and National Production, Tareck el Aissami. It is also likely supported North Korea's illicit arms market whose proceeds have gone towards North Korea's Nuclear program and the oppression of the North Korean People. More should be demanded from the public about the sideline deals inked in Geneva, with a particular focus on the surrounding financial transactions and corruption. The money released undoubtedly went towards the sponsorship of terrorism that lead to the death or displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians while helping keep others under the bootstrap of tyranny longer than they otherwise would have been. Pulling out of the Iranian deal was a principled foreign policy decision.
While Kahmenei may not return to the negotiating table in the immediate future, especially with the treachery of John Kerry's council to Zarif that the Iranians wait out the Trump Administration, eventually Kahmenei will either die and new leadership will bring rapprochement or the economic peril and social unrest will either collapse his regime or force him back into negotiations. In the immediate term, it has already destabilized the regime, forcing the Iranian regime to scale back its regional ambitions which almost always take the form of military aggression carried out by terrorist proxies. Reinstalling sanctions on Iran has empowered the people of the region to stand up to Iranian organized repression and malevolent incursions into their lands. The best example of this is the revolt against Iranian influence by the Shi'ites of Basra in Iraq who torched the Iranian consulate.
While we patiently wait and let the sanctions have their affect, we cannot lose sight of the suffering of the people in Iran. Both the Persians and other Iranian born peoples of varying ethnic groups who have come to USA have contributed to our economy and nation in astounding ways so it is not without concern for the impact US policies have on their family members still in Iran. We should find ways to continue helping the Iranian people, but need to balance their needs with the needs of the people in the region who have been placed under duress by Al-Quds and the Khamenei regime's operations.
The Trump Administration has been clear about what they want in a new accord that could be ratified as a treaty; something the Obama Administration never sought to do. President Donald J. Trump wants the treaty to cover not only uranium production and nuclear weapons development, but also their ballistic missile program and sponsorship of terrorism. If sensible, pragmatic negotiations can transpire, both Kanmenei and Trump can have the distinguished honor of bringing about the regional stability and peace conducive to increasing prosperity. Khamenei has to understand that their possession of a nuclear weapon would be followed nearly over night by the Saudi acquisition of a nuclear weapon from Pakistan. This proliferation would be very dangerous and since both sides of the divide would have nuclear weapons neither would benefit. Instead their limited quantity could drive regional nuclear powers like Israel or possibly even Western nations such as the United States of America into a scenario where first strike capabilities and advantage prompt high risk preventive actions. The latter outcome could potentially become a catastrophe unrivaled in human history so it is with all our efforts and diligence we must work towards a comprehensive peace treaty that resolves all three components of the threat emanating from Iran.
In my best open source assessment, I would anticipate that with the European Union trying to keep the deal, Iran also will keep to the terms of JCPOA, at least until the end of Trump's first term. The financial pressure will require Iran to scale back both their naval build up and support for foreign military operations, militias and terrorist groups. The US needs to continue building its 5th generation air capacity to retain the deterrent option to eliminate Iran's nuclear program if necessary while accelerating our Naval build up so that the US can maintain our ability to deny Iranian efforts to close the Strait of Hurmuz even when other geo-strategic challenges require the movement of Carrier Battle Groups. Continued monitoring of Iranian actions and vigilant efforts to improve US regional military capabilities and readiness the reinstalled sanctions on Iran will slow Iranian national ambition and eventually push them back into negotiating a treaty that US Congress would realistically be willing to ratify.

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