Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Four areas of rapid technological growth: Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Decision Support Systems, and Autonomous vehicles have a potential to alter human life forever. 


   There are many reasons to be concerned about the long-term influence of technology on human activity and evolution.  Far too little attention has been spent researching how technologies have changed human behavior and society, along with the impact on our health and how they are influencing evolution.  Ultimately, however, it depends on what humans do with new technology that determines whether the impact is bad or good.  Four areas of rapid technological growth: Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Decision Support Systems, and Autonomous vehicles have a potential to alter human life forever. 

      Part of the incredible value of computer systems, from their original inception, rests in their ability to process complex calculations far quicker than a human brain could ever hope to do so.  For tedious redundant calculations, there is tremendous value in computers.  Over-time computer makes, from the processors to hard drives, to software and application makers have sought to increase the value of computers by building them to conduct increasingly complex operations.  If for example, you are shopping for a plane ticket, it is awesome that computers are now smart enough to sift through massive amounts of data from a range of airline companies traveling to a wide range of destinations and then give you options you can compare side by side to choose from.  AI allows for the same website to also recommend hotels, rental cars, restaurants, and popular tourist destinations in the city you plan to travel.  The best innovations in technology have optimized our economy, opening more choices while making it easier to find the best choices.   The down side lives in the diminished role for the travel agent, at times lower profit margins for airlines and hotels and influences in the pay of individuals working in these industries.  Generally, however, the markets find a reasonable balance, with lower costs and ease of shopping increasing the amount people travel, therefore having an overall positive impact on people working in the broader tourism industry, even as travel agencies may shrink while companies like Travelocity may hire. 

      One of the trendier buzz words in the Silicon Valley these days is Machine Learning.  Traditionally, computers could engage in some very sophisticated operations and calculations but only when they have been programmed by someone to make those calculations.  With AI and robotics increasingly automating assembly lines for example, market place competition has created a hefty bounty for those capable of creating machines that can learn on their own, without being taught or programmed.  With machine learning, a computer or program run on a computer may be programmed with an algorithm, but given the ability on its own to refine and improve that algorithm with each repetition based on some sort of new results or data coming back into it a decision-making process.   The problem is that as more production is sourced to machines that may be learning on the job, less people will know how to do that work and in the future, we may reach a point where only a machine that learned and developed a new fabrication technique for example, knows how to do what it does.  Depending on the value of what the Machine learns and how removed humanity is from what it can do and how dependent humanity becomes on it, it could have very serious consequences for human life.

     Decision Support Systems became very popular as the ability to collect and manipulate date become easier.  For generations of Masters of Business Administration, the mantra of rational decision making and profit lines was brought to its logical technological conclusion with Decision Support Systems.  CEOs could know come up with an endless list of Key Performance Indicators for each job position from which data points could be kept and then used to populate the DSS which they could shift into various graphs from which where to make rational decisions.  Decision Support Systems can help CEOs manage costs, decide which markets to invest in, where to downsize, where to grow and who to promote.  

     Autonomous vehicles have also become a very popular trend in the tech world.   In more basic value, they offer people who may otherwise not be able to drive, access to the mobility that others have.  For Autonomous vehicles to work there are components of all three of the prior types of technology being used.  The cars must become smarter in how they drive and how they make decisions.  In several generations, people may no longer learn to drive because autonomous cars have made the skills obsolete for humans.  Similarly, unmanned Aerial vehicles have utilized similar technologies predominately with a military function.   While once in war, the utility of aerial drones for purposes of battle field surveillance is clear, but what about when used for bombing missions?  What if we get to the point we remove the kill decision from human operators but potentially program a smart computer to learn and make its own decisions?  The consequences have been explored in detail in the science fiction thriller the Terminator.  Science fiction when it was made, today the premise of the Terminator is not too far off from the realities of war.

       There is no question that computers and the new smart machines help augment human endeavor.  It is also clear, however, that with new capabilities come new risks.  While there are many reasons to be concerned and to carefully draft laws and regulation limiting the risks, the future is coming whether we like it or not.  The area where I believe the biggest risk exists; however, is not in eminent existential threats that result since after all, deadly weapons have been in existence since early civilizations and human populations have grown even as their lethality has increased.  What worries me is the subtler impact on human organization initially, and human evolution in the long-term.  Too much technology may reduce the pressures of natural selection and cause the human species to gradually devolve as machine learning computers continue to evolve.  At some point, the computer may decide the humans are best to go the way of the horses after the humans invented the automobile. 
The Above was written as practice reply to a GRE practice question.  Written on 9/4 with a 30 minute timed response time. 



posted by Mi vida en libros @ 10:56 PM   0 Comments

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