Insights from the review of ISIS propaganda, "The Return of the Khilafah."

Insights from the review of ISIS propaganda, "The Return of the Khilafah."  

  With direction from the Professors of our homeland security faculty, we have been provided the first issue of ISIS's magazine, an item that is actually published in English.  The colors and texture of it resemble closer to a Jihadist graphic novel and it provides a revealing look at not only their propaganda, but also what they are thinking.  Most revealing, is there interpretations of end time prophecies in the Qur'an and how they are applying them to current events.  The realities of these interpretations are important to US, NATO, UN and regional decision makers.  It would be foolish for NATO to play into end time prophecies, as it would embolden the group with zeal and tenacity that can prove difficult to defeat, in light of acceptable measures of force according to current international norms.   In first addition of Dabiq, "The Return of the Khilafah," the success of Ramadan is emphasized as Muslim unity is called upon, and jihad against the cliche cast of villains including Jews, Crusaders and Romans are promulgated.  They praise the restoration of the Caliphate promising a return of, "your dignity, might, rights and leadership," preaching a multi-ethnic, non-racial order that, "if kings were to taste this blessing, they would abandon their kingdoms and fight over the this grace."  The magazine endorses terrorism, promising to, "trample nationalism and the false idol of democracy," which it views as deviant in nature.   It explores ISIS philosophy, which neatly divides the world into two camps, those devoted to Islam and those against it, claiming the second to be lead by Russia and America, "mobilized by the Jews."  The imagery contrasts triumphant jihadi fighters standing heroically with AK47s on their backs and black flags waving with the carnage of US bombing including bullet ridden corpses, stacks of body bags and dead children.  They reveal their close reading of conservative think-tank, the CATO institute and use it to express the intensions and attitudes of the West, using its descriptions of ISIS to validate their influence and prominence.
 
    The magazine calls for recruits from around the world to come into the region and help in the fighting and in the establishment of the Caliphate State, looking particularly for doctors, engineers, experts in Islamic Jurisprudence and administrators.  As an America politician in closely contested election campaign, the journal summarizes ISIS leadership's following successes;

-returning rights and property to their rightful owners
-pumping millions of dollars into services that are important to the Muslims
-the state of security and stability enjoyed by the areas under the Islamic State's authority
-ensuring the availability of food products and commodities in the market, particularly bread
-the reduced crime rate
-the flourishing relationship between the state and its citizens

This is clear propaganda overlooking the fact that the limited provision of services is funded by a combination of illicit activities from smuggling to poaching with heavy donations from charity front companies co-mingling funds with those going towards weaponry purchases.

  Provided room for repentance, the journal reports on hundreds of former Iraqi government personnel repenting for their involvement with the Iraqi government.  The publication ends with this prophecy,

“The Hour will not be es- tablished until the Romans land at al-A’maq or Dabiq (two places near each oth- er in the northern country- side of Halab).

Then an army from al-Ma- dinah of the best people on the earth at that time will leave for them. When they line up in ranks, the Romans will say, ‘Leave us and those who were taken as prisoners from amongst us so we can fight them.’

The Muslims will say, ‘Nay, by Allah, we will not aban- don our brothers to you.’ So they will fight them.

Then one third of them will flee; Allah will never forgive them. One third will be killed; they will be the best martyrs with Al- lah. And one third will con- quer them; they will never be afflicted with fitnah.

Then they will conquer Constantinople.

While they are dividing the war booty, having hung their swords on olive trees, Shaytān will shout, ‘The [false] Messiah has fol- lowed after your families [who were left behind.]’ So they will leave [for their families], but Shaytan’s claim is false. When they arrive to Sham he comes out.

Then while they are pre- paring for battle and filing their ranks, the prayer is called. So ‘Isa Ibn Maryam (‘alayhis-Salam) will de- scend and lead them.

When the enemy of Al- lah sees him, he will melt as salt melts in water. If he were to leave him, he would melt until he per- ished, but he kills him with his own hand, and then shows them his blood upon his spear.”

   The take away from this, is that the failed administration of Anbar province by the Shi'ite dominated Baghdad government, combined with inaction in Syria, opened room for the well-funded and armed ISIS to grow in influence, to move across the porous Syrian border and begin garnering legitimacy and influence by providing only menial and basic government services, confronting an Iraqi National Army that proved unwilling to fight.  My fear is that attacks on Turkey will trigger a NATO alliance retaliation that fulfills the above prophecy.   The northern countryside of Halab described above, is a land between Aleppo, Syria and Antakya, Turkey, a point of attack that would be very logical for any coordinated efforts to defeat ISIS militarily.  Their end time prophecy emboldens them to sustain massive losses, with the death of 1/3 of all Muslims predicted, hardening their positions, the 1/3 who are anticipated to die are those with the weakest faith, before turning their march towards Constantinople, or modern day Istanbul.   Any military response, that therefore involves ground troops, needs to prevent providing them such a battle, and so if military action becomes necessary, it would have to involve a tight control on the Iraqi, Syrian border and total occupation of the fertile farm lands surrounding the Tigris and Euphrates river.  ISIS has little military equipment capable of preventing sizable forces from seizing control of the lands.  US air power could effectively shut down the flow of food and goods into the cities.   To avoid urban warfare and minimize casualties, a combination of psy-ops and generous provisions of food for those individuals surrendering to the US forces and entering into designated safe zones with multi-tiered security would quickly cause the Sunni tribes to turn on ISIS as they did against Al-Qaeda during the Sunni Awakening, turning Anbar province back over to the Shi'ite dominated national government would only create a return to the same problems, so today's proposal to consider is the formation of a Saudi administered semi-sovereign state still formally part of Iraq with permanent US, NATO and UN peacekeepers present as a means of calming the province.  Anbar Province would serve as a Sunni buffer for any Iranian lead Shi'ite aggression towards the Arab Peninsula.   If America can secure UN security council approval for these actions, it could potentially approve Russia to lead a similar response in Syria, marching from the Iraqi border towards Damascus and Aleppo as a unity of Syrian and moderate rebel forces granted amnesty march from the North and West to squeeze the Islamist brigades, preventing the formation of a Caliphate that would seek to expand out indefinitely, conquering with terrorism and forcing conversion by the sword.  The real question; however, is any of this really worth it?  The United States of America may be far wiser to turn its attention, focus its energies and invest its resources on problems easier to solve and lands closer to home.