Citizen's Empire: The Grand Strategy for America in the Middle East

Theo Johnson

San Diego State University

Master of Science Homeland Security Program

The Grand Strategy for America in the Middle East

I believe that as an intelligent consultant it is my task to accurately identify America's National Security and Economic interests and that while the UN is a vital diplomatic tool and important forum for international negotiation, that responsible leadership requires support for scholarly intelligence work directed towards revealing factual truth and appropriate action by America's numerous assets to advance its national interest. This is not an effort to bully or bludgeon, this not without respect for European and Middle Eastern Allies or the legitimate aspirations of freedom by peoples everywhere. It is simply a recognition that nations generally act in self-interest, that their behaviors are predictable threw history and that the field of political science has shown numerous predictive measures of nation-state behavior and looked at the mechanics of how national action is made. My goal, is an acceptable peace, but part of achieving and maintaining that peace is preparation for war, a realistic understanding of what is happening and how best to curtail certain actions. The United States of America has earned the right to be leader of the world by its merit, and should act resolutely and with strength to defend the peace and world order it is has created. America is certainly not perfect or infallible and certainly has made mistakes, but is far and away the best we have, exceptional in the quality of its populace, capacity of its economy and professionalism of its military. America may not be an empire, but it is certainly the necessary partner and leader required to defend and advance the free aspirations of the world's people. While there are a multitude of security threats around the world, the nexus of rogue leaders, weapons of mass destruction and terrorist networks is nowhere better identified than in Iran. In this paper we will explore the threat posed by Iran, how it can best be addressed and make clear recommendations for the Administration and its Military Command while providing clarification and understanding to interested American Citizens.

My style of intelligence is different than many, I look to a wide range of sources, a combination of military reports, media reports in the major media, but also seek out non-traditional media outlets and conversations. I look at the history, look for pattern matches and past experiences, and while I am versed in different analytic frameworks of decision making, particularly game theory, I also allow for the organic decision making of my brain to process and synthesize a large volume of information, pray, discuss and while I cannot pretend that I make such recommendations with scientific certitude, there is a real science behind my study that at least thins the fog of war and removes the vale of mystery from our adversary. I currently rent a room to a Saudi National, a grandson of the man who provides the gold gilding placed on Mecca's most holy sight each year, before it is replaced and given as alms to the poor. I have worked closely with an American citizen and daughter of an Afghani national to explore a synchronized operating system for our government and allies to combat terrorism and organized crime. I have close Persian friends and am in no way a war monger or one who wishes to see more violence. I am simply a truth seeker and patriot, looking to explore the possibilities of the future, provide valuable intelligence and make my recommendations accordingly. Historically speaking, the Persian Empire has been the long time foe to Western Civilization dating back to the times of Sparta and Athens, the delian league and the Golden Era where democracy first emerged. The people are beautiful and strong, the land rugged and resource rich and its negative experiences of Western Colonialism, British and American domination authentic. As communist leaders in Iran nationalized British controlled oil fields, Britain encouraged the CIA to take action, successfully mounting a coup that placed a Western Backed Shah or Persian equivalent of King back in power, who while fostering tremendous relationships with the West and Israel, also oversaw the brutal oppression of remnants of his population in opposition to his policies. In 1979, the Iranian Revolution directed by the exiled Al-Sistani, prompted a hostage crisis in which 52 US citizens were held for 444 days while their release was negotiated and the Shah overthrown, as the Islamic Republic was established with Al-Sistani as its supreme leader above group of Mullahs similar to our Supreme Court, a legislative and executive branch. Let us not however allow for our understanding and sympathy to blind our judgement and ignore the reality that Iran is the primary geo-political adversary of America at a time when we as Americans are at a vital crossroads in our history where very difficult decisions must be made.

As America has chased the Organization Osama Bin Laden created, Al-Qaeda across the Middle East, denying it safe havens and punishing its collaborators we have played into the hands of his strategy, to bring us into costly fights in rugged regions where there is little economic gain to offset the costs of war. From our intercepts of Al-Qaeda this strategy is referred to as the “Strategy of a Thousand Cuts,” where within they will gradually bleed America's economic resources in an effort to bankrupt the nation. Osama Bin Laden understood, that America's center of gravity was its economy and so it was what he most savagely attacked. An oversimplification, yes, but Al-Qaeda was in fact a threat, it took advantage of the Pushtan tribal codes of eastern Afghanistan and hosted operational bases for Al-Qaeda to plan the 9/11 attacks. Those attacks did not expose America as a paper tiger, rather awakened a sleeping lion prompting immediate military response from a regime that was almost entirely composed of war profiteers and oil men, a gift handed to Dick Cheney, the pearl harbor like event transpired and he now had the impetus and domestic support to launch his ambitious Project for a New American Century within which he proposed aggressive action to secure the resources of the Middle East before China or Russia were strong enough to stop us. You can review the document and you will find in Richard Cheney's own words, “Further, the process of transformation, even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event- like a new Pearl Harbor.” The complexities of such power relationships are a fascinating realm in which to delve and it is not a lie that Bush Sr.'s father and a brother of Bin Laden met at Carlyle Group Meeting, nor is it a falsehood that the relationships between the Bush family, the Saudi Royal Family and the Bin Laden families close relations with the Saudi Royal family earned them numerous construction contracts, including monument at Mecca itself, the most holy of sights in the Islamic world, that were paid undoubtedly by the proceeds of the Bush family and Saudi Royal family's' oil deals.

I know your thoughts, I assume your exposure to enemy propaganda, the allegations of false flag ops and CIA strings behind Al-Qaeda, maybe, but maybe usually means no and as you explore deeper and begin to understand Osama Bin Laden, read his words and the materials of Al-Qaeda strategists and begin to learn about the varying groups that compose the Middle East you uncover an abundance of variance in opinions and motives within the Saudi Arabian and Mujahideen fighters. As research continues you begin to detect that Osama Bin Laden was the wayward son, cut off from his family, cut off from the Saudi Government and living in exile in Sudan and then Afghanistan insulated by a radical core of followers that functioned and behaved as a nihilistic death cult. One should not underestimate Osama Bin Laden, he was a tireless worker, successfully running and operating numerous businesses which he built by the sweat of his brow, was highly competent financially and strategically brazen, identifying the weakness of his enemy, pulling its far enemy of America and using its military strength against his near enemies in the secular regimes so brutal in their oppression of his spiritual kin. His brother, Shafiq Bin Laden's meetings with Bush Sr. on September 10th, where both met as board members and investors in the infamous security technology firm, The Carlyle Group, is better understood as a means of the Bin Laden family with so much skin in the game, to distance themselves from Osama Bin Laden. It was an effort to show that Shafiq was on our side and the bets they placed were closer to an inside trade than some covert coordination of a false flag op. A criticism then that the Bush family, along with the Bin Laden family sought to cash in on the attack as opposed to take actions to prevent it is very real. FBI agents have come forward about being called off the tails of key actors in the 911 attack. While its true security would require technology and its development would require investment to create, these are facts the Republican Party's record must contend. The intelligence reports of Osama Bin Laden's determination to attack within the United States were placed on the President, George Bush's desk in the White House, and its likely that such conversations were discussed with Cheney and his father, former president, vice president and director of the CIA at a time when Osama Bin Laden with other bands of foreign fighters rallied the Afghani resistance to Soviet invasion, successfully weakening Soviet prestige and finances, prepping its fall as the spending game of the Reagan Era began. Indeed, the Mujahedin were paraded around evangelical circuits as holy war rock stars in the 80s, heroic allies in our fight against godless Communism.

The betrayal was later, to the surprise of his followers, that Osama Bin Laden would decide to challenge the United States of America, his sponsor, his arms supplier, his home countries primary buyer of oil and source of the Arabic wealth his family had so clearly benefited. The motivation behind such a decision is unknown, but his determination would change the direction of history forever, away from the pleasant end of history declared by Fukyamo and towards prolonged war between liberalizing forces of democracy and Islamic radicalism. The inevitable advance of democracy, liberal economics and human rights was no longer guaranteed, as terror and the resulting security state would shift the paradigm in way that challenges not only democracy in America but also its advance abroad. On the morning of September 11^th, 2001, 19 Al-Qaeda operatives hi-jacked two United Airlines, and two American Airlines planes, crashing two into the World Trade Centers Twin Towers, bringing the largest office buildings in the world to the ground, and another passenger jet other colliding with the Pentagon building, and a fourth believed to be headed towards either the white house or the legislative houses was crashed as the passengers and crew overpowered the terrorists.

Nearly 2,996 people died in the 9/11 attacks, the world was horrified and save for a few isolated celebration in the Middle East where anti-Americanism was highest, the world rallied behind the United States and a massive coalition entered into Afghanistan to remove the Taliban and Mullah Omar from power and destroy the infamous Al-Qaeda organization. The Taliban fled for the rugged ungoverned tribal mountain regions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. They would blend in with the villages, but as the weather would warm, each spring brought out the fighters in bands to make their presence felt and challenge the American occupation. The early US operations were in fact successful, and with a relatively small residual force, the first few years of US occupation saw limited resistance and challenge as America successfully decapitated substantial remnants of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. It could not, however, capture Osama Bin Laden or Mullah Omar for an extended period of time as higher level collaboration between Pakistani leadership and the allies of the United States was offset by elements of the ISI (Pakistan's Intelligence Agency), the Haqqani Network and lower level military elements with sympathies towards resistance to the US to use the Taliban to strategically project Pakistani interests in Afghanistan against the Western and perceived Indian influence of Karzai's western aligned regime. While Afghanistan has a long history of patriarchal democracy at the village level and much of the country enthusiastically welcomed liberation from the radically oppressive religious rule of the Taliban, the sparse terrain, poorly developed economy, low rates of literacy and high dependence on poppy cultivation posed substantial obstacles to economic development and the formation of a functional modern democratic nation state by western standards. Still, such a mission to create a functional Afghani democracy, albeit dependent on substantial foreign aid and continued military assistance, was feasible and continues to be possible with continued focus and competent leadership.

The Bush Administration lacked such focus and confidence, sought to cash in on the 9/11 attacks and the overwhelming solidarity of Americans and good will of the modern world, the Bush Administration's strategists sought to pay back its core of supporters and divide the Democratic party and while the impetus of recognizing a nexus of Rogue Leaders, WMDs and terror groups was prevalent in Saddam's Iraq, its unclear whether the high cost in terms of both money and of even more importance human life, was worth it, considering the destabilizing effect and continued security concerns that resulted, including, a stronger hand for Iran in Iraq and festering conditions conducive to the training and development of experienced Al-Qaeda operatives. The initial invasion of Baghdad, however, was a tremendously successful military mission, highlighting the strengths of US military, however, the realities of war were exposed as the Iraqi people the American military were charged with liberating were subjected to humiliating torture in Saddam's notorious Abu-Ghraib prison. While such were unlikely to be entirely innocent in their capture and the questioning techniques designed to ease the collection of valuable intelligence used to capture Saddam Hussein and the remnants of security forces, the embarrassing leakage of photos taken by the military, posted on social media served as the perfect recruiting tool for anti-Americanism and resistance to US occupation; the Americans had become white handed replacements to Saddam continuing there oppression, and an insurgency gathered strength that would substantially increase the cost of the Iraq war, cost American and coalition lives and reduce our ability to elevate the standard of living for the Iraqi people. While lower level participants in such actions, including Corporal Graner were brought to justice, white house attorneys, the chain of command leading directly up to Rumsfeld and Congressmen, including the laudatory praise of Corporal Graner by Alabama Republican, Mike Rogers, were aware of the “wallings and water boarding” yet have to date avoided further prosecution. The war which did eventual lead to the capture of Saddam Hussein and allow for free and fair democratic elections in Iraq and the insurgency was finally subdued with the lead of Robert Gates as America significantly increased its military presence and the number of boots on the ground in what was called “The Surge,” where the Sunni Awakening in which America armed Sunni militias to take out the Al-Qaeda elements amongst them proved successful. The war also succeeded in prompting Iran to suspend its nuclear enrichment program from 2002-2007 and to motivate Gaddafi in Libya to hand over his nuclear warheads. These successes have been overshadowed, however, as relations between the now Sunni lead government and minority ethnic groups, the Sunnis and Kurds, have deteriorated as the chaos in neighboring Syria spilled over into Iraq as Al-Qaeda under banner of ISIS has made a surprising come back at a time when the Sunni Militias were bitter over failures of the Baghdad government to meet their financial promises. Now they seek to arm them once again, pay them late, but this time without the presence of the US military that has instead been replaced by a caustic cynicism directed towards the Shi'ite lead Iraqi Government.

The war also distracted America and its allies from their focus in completing the mission in Afghanistan, which allowed for a resilient Taliban insurgency that prompted a similar surge of troops in Afghanistan. The success was less than clear in Iraq as the remote tribal nature of the Afghanistan differ from the Urbanized and municipal realities of Iraq; however, it has helped to stabilize a very fragile country as it builds up its security forces and prepares to increase its independence as American presence is substantially reduced. While elements of the Taliban persist in their belief they can wait out the US occupation, the majority of their commanders have been captured or killed and increasing numbers of the volatile at risk youth have been armed and put to work by the American and Kabal Government. The Taliban's sophistication of attacks and professionalism is noted, but so is the capacity of the Afghani's to withstand such attacks independently. It would be a huge error for the American military to rush for the exits, however, as their will be a continued need for their presence, with permanent military bases and airfields a realpolitic necessity in light of a troubled nuclear armed Pakistan to the South East, and increasingly assertive Iran with advanced enrichment capacity to the West.

While Iran participated in the ousting of the Taliban from Afghanistan and suspended its nuclear enrichment activities as America lead its coalition into Iraq, through its foreign intelligence apparatus, the Quds or Jerusalem force it began providing arms for any and all who challenged the American military in Iraq, including Al-Qaeda, providing insurgents with materials to make IEDs, guns and bullets. With the secular Sunni Leadership of Saddam removed, the election of Shi'ite leadership brought Iraq which had historically been at war with Saddam's regime substantially closer to it, looking to the Shi'ites of Iran for spiritual leadership, military assistance, investment and trade.

The presidency of Barack Obama largely brought a continuation of policy from the Bush Administration as experience improved our militaries counter-insurgency methodologies and technological breakthrough brought armed unmanned drones into our arsenal, as network based theories of warfare allowed us to launch precision strikes at the nodes of adversary resistance. Barack Obama ordered a successful attack on Osama Bin Laden, killing him the compound he inhabited, in the heart of Pakistan's intelligence and military community. America exited Iraq with some haste as failures to garner signatures on immunity agreements for US military personnel were impetus to depart, while limited increases in American military presence in Afghanistan eased American wins on the battlefield but made holds and stabilization an undermanned endeavor prompting necessary suffices that further militarize a country that now has a massive 300 thousand strong security force among which nearly half cannot even read and write. The Taliban continues to be pest, both in Afghanistan but increasingly in Pakistan which has increased its usage of airstrikes in recent weeks, a recognition of the very real security issue they continue to mount, in nation with over a100 nuclear weapons and substantial radicalism and poverty to offset its brain power, democratic institutions, westernized legal system and tenuous military collaboration.

The Arab Spring, spawned by Tunisian peddler's decision to ignite himself in flames to protest the oppression of Tunisian Autocracy, inspired Arabs across north Africa and the Middle East to take to the streets to protest for democratic reforms, a movement which the Obama Administration quickly moved behind. The protests brought the collapse of long lasting Authoritarian regimes in Tunisia and in Egypt where democracy took root organically without western military action or presence. As the Arab spring spread it posed problems as American allies were inundated with massive protests that were at times turning violent. With Democracy, the Tunisians and Egyptians elected Islamist regimes causing immense uncertainty what the implications of such radicalism would entail for the security of Israel, the Mediterranean and the world in general. Excited by the liberating effect of Democracies, the theorcratic tendencies of those elected presented an impasse. The Governments permitting American military presence, quietly put down the Shi'ite populaces' uprising inspired by the Arab spring, while the regimes considered most dangerous to American interests, including Gaddafi's Libya and Assad's Syria, saw substantial support flow to the resistance. In Libya, as Gaddafi prepared to march his tanks on Benghazi and butcher the civilian protestors, UN security authorization of no-fly zones were used as legal permission to provide air support to the rebels who successfully defeated the Tripoli regime, killing the dictator of 42 years, Col. Omar Gaddafi and providing for the election of a secular regime, that faces continued security challenges from the radical militias operating autonomously alongside the militias aligned with the Free Libyan regime that requires continued International Support but is none the less, making progress. Such Civil Wars and Revolutions are always bloody, make no romantic misconceptions about it, when the oppressed are freed they often seek violent retaliation that includes torture, murder and extra-judicial killings, the break down in law and governance also often coincides with spikes in organized crime and criminal enterprise operations. The actions in Libya, were at least successful, the deep evil of Gaddafi unquestioned, and the promise of a better Libyan future at minimum a realistic hope, if not realized reality.

In Egypt, the election of the Muslim Brotherhood brought substantial issues as the Truth and Justice party leader, Morsi was too radical in his effort to constitutionalize the Qu'ran and overrule the court rulings and challenge the military, alienating the liberal co-patriots so influential in the removal Murbarak. The military intervened and democratic transition has yet to transpire but is promised by the military leadership. Perhaps learning from the example of Egypt, the Tunisian Islamists who were successful in the elections made substantial compromise with liberals and technocrats, providing for a constitution enshrining the basic institutions of a modern liberal democracy into the countries existence as a matter of law, remaining unopposed to the democratic transfer of power.

Yemen, saw political transition as Al-Qaeda continued to wage attacks and America continues to respond with unmanned drone strikes, an effort to prevent the contamination from spreading to Saudi Arabia, which successfully halted popular protest by combining a heavy fist with an outreached hand offering generous benefits to the loyal portions of the populace. The Regimes in Bahrain and Qatar also survived, but fragmented populations continue to pose obstacles to stability and security for both those western aligned regimes.

The displaced mercenaries of the Gaddafi regime migrated South, teaming up with Al-Qaeda and Tuaregs to create Azawed, a short lived Islamic State in North Eastern Africa from which they began raiding, raping and implementing Sharia law on the Black Africans of the Malian democracy; as Al-Qaeda approached Timbuktu spreading humanitarian crisis, the French Foreign legion lead a UN authorized team of primarily Nigerians, but also other ECOWAS nation militaries to successfully route Al-Qaeda and chase it into the remote desert. The Tuaregs, who had already been double-crossed by Al-Qaeda, were quick to re-align themselves with the Timbuktu government and help chase the foreign Arab agitators from the region. These same displaced mercenaries of Gaddafi, aligning themselves with Al-Qaeda and capitalizing on the break down of law and porous borders of North Africa also waged attacks on British Petroleum installations in Algeria prompting massive Algerian military response that left both hostage and hostage takers dead.

Nigeria has continued to experience an escalating insurgency from a group that goes by Boko Haram, arabic for “Western Education is banned,” that Nigerian Security forces have competently contained but continue to be a nuisance that needs western intelligence monitoring none the less. The Somalis have also seen a persistent insurgence from a group that goes by Al-Shabaab or “The Youth” that has received training from Al-Qaeda, benefits from the revenues of oil tanker piracy and has waged attacks against not only the Somali government, but also into Kenya where elaborately planned mall shootings prompted immense terror and killed many innocent civilians.

South Sedan has recently seen renewed troubles despite its recent independence from the Islamic Dominance of Northern Sedan. Central African Republic has been the latest seen of violence where conflicts oversimplified as fights between the Christian majority and a now defeated coup of Muslim fighters erupted into cyclical vengeance killings as militias raised to protect the civilian population from Muslim Selekas took the upper hand in fighting, burning and mutilating both Seleka fighters but also civilian populations causing them to take flight to Chad for safety. French lead UN operations to disarm both sides have been overwhelmed by the deep and bitter hatred between the waring parties.

Fighting in Syria spiraled out of control as Russia's effort to protect its client, Bashar Al-Assad and legitimate concerns about the political vision of the opposition hosting close to five to seven thousand fighters under allegiance to core Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri as the Al-Nursi Front under the command of Abu-Mohammed Al-Julani and another three to five thousand allied with its affiliated but independent, fighting as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), alongside 45,000 fighters united under the the Islamic Front that pulled together 7 Islamist groups with the stated goal of removing Bashar Al-Assad from power and creating an Islamic Republic. The west has been providing support for a coalition operating as the Free Syrian Army; however, its long time leader Brig. Gen Salim Idris as been replaced by Col. Adb al-Ilah al-Bashir. What is clear is that Gen. Salim Idris was an ineffective military leader, lacking operational command over a loose federation of Brigades, serving instead as a spokesman to the West and conduit of aid and support, both financial, military and humanitarian. While there are substantial elements of this group which are the preferred partners amongst the opposition, there are others that are Islamist and collaborate regularly with Al-Qaeda affiliates. The basic belief amongst these groups is that if the Sunni are put back into power and the “natural order” is restored, their will be peace. They are largely proponents of the Salafi religious movement and there is little substance to suggest they intend to play according to the terms of democratic transition outlined by the United Nations. The Syrian military has seen substantial, perhaps as much as 100,000 defections joining the opposition, and increased efforts to prevent the inflow of foreign fighters have been implemented and the violent, prolonged and brutal nature of the fighting makes the peaceable aftermath witnessed in Tunisia where the Islamists let go of power to an authentic and modern constitutional democracy less likely than liberals disgusted by Bashar Al-Assad's atrocious crimes against humanity would like to think.

Bashar Al-Assad's Allawite regime is aligned closely with Shi'ite Iran, dependent on the protection of its Russian sponsor who has its only Mediterranean naval base in Syria, and the Lebanese based Hezbollah. Bashar Al-Assad has clung to power with the brutality of a professional and largely loyal military of believed to continue to have 140 thousand troops, advanced anti-aircraft missile systems complicating would be efforts at a no-fly zone and a willingness to used sustained campaigns of torture, starvation, aerial assault and even massive chemical weapons attacks in his attempt to pound the opposition into submission. The extensive destruction that has resulted has only hardened the opposition that has experienced an inevitable radicalization in the process. While its not exactly a military stalemate by definition, the bloody fighting has created divided zones and the American interest is unclear, we'd like to Bashar Al-Assad to go and a new democratic regime take its places, but don't want a radical Islamist regime either. The interest of our allies and the population at large, is even harder to define. Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian Qub forces have also been active in the fighting, assisting Bashar Al-Assad. UN lead Peace talks have gone nowhere and patience with Assad's agreements to disarm itself of chemical weapons are thinning. Several key dates have been missed as reports of three additional instances of chemical weapons usage have been presented. Assad attributes delays in the chemical weapons deliveries to the fighting on the ground, was able to deliver the shipment later, with it necessarily clarified we do not ask of his military to ship chemical weapons at times and in areas where it cannot protect them from Al-Qaeda proxies. While America and Europe generally agree in principal to democratic transition, there has been scant signs and no reason to believe that Bashar Al-Assad would host free and fair elections or acknowledge any such results if he should lose. Republican controlled congress's rebuff of Barack Obama's request to authorize tomahawk assaults on Syrian weapons sights, allowed for the WMD variable to unnecessarily remain in the equation, weakening our hand in negotiations with Iran, while simultaneously presenting a real risk of Al-Qaeda securing chemical weapons and allowing for Bashar Al-Assad's usage of them against civilian populations to go unpunished, a dangerous precedent to consider.

Meanwhile Iran and the Obama administration have negotiated a 6 month temporary deal to that halts Iranian enrichment at 5%, well below any weapons grade potential in exchange for minimal relaxations on tight Sanctions that been gradually increased since 1979. Let there be no illusion of uniformity in opinion on either the Iranian or Iraqi side, Rouhani and Obama have an agreement, but the actions of war and political profiteers, legislatures and elements within the military and intelligence agencies of both sides, can easily derail confidence in the agreement by real action or propaganda could easily tilt the uneasy peace exemplified by the recent administrative collaboration that is the Winter Olympics held in Russia for the only adjective that can accurately describe such a balance as fragile. The common thread along all this winding path of war zones and battlefields where Western powers have responded to aggression to protect civilian populations is the prevalent possession of Russian made AK47s and Iranian produced bullets by all these unified adversarial groups. Where we have seen dictators cling to power despite democratic opposition and election results, Russian arms, military and other business contracts have persisted to guide Russia's vote on the UN security council and their advise to client states.

One must acknowledge, the slightest miscalculation can easily escalate this conflict into a third world war, one that could potentially see Russia and America engaged in a hot war, unlikely, but certainly not impossible. Failure to act, could provide for a Nuclear Armed Persian Empire, capable of unifying substantial portions of the Islamic world from Indonesia to Morocco under the leadership of its Caliphate. The westernized world needs to face these realities with grave seriousness and cannot underestimate their adversary and allow for infighting to sabotage a unified position. The combination of American retreat from the Middle East, the allowance of Iran to go Nuclear and the easing of sanctions would allow for rapid Iranian expansion as it would fills the power vacuums in Afghanistan and Iraq left by an American Exit. The world would be on path to a new era in its history where the Western World, America and Europe are increasingly challenged not so much by the workers party of China or the stagnated advance of liberalism in Russia, but by a menacing nuclear armed Persian Empire directing the actions of nations across the Middle East and North Africa that even Russia would be unable to control.

America, NATO, the British Common Wealth nations and our allies military commanders need to be prepared not only for precision military strikes designed to decimate Iranian Nuclear potential and then withstand retaliation, but to also explore what wider scale operations involving a large boot print occupation of Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan as staging grounds for a wider invasion of Iran would look like and be ready for rapid deployment if such necessities arise. Caution and understanding must be employed surrounding the risk of military build up, the pressures that often cause military build ups to lead to armed confrontation even when the issues driving the build up have been resolved, but none the less, our countries must have such plans in place and training for the execution of such plans if conditions worsen and negotiations with Iran fail.

America has no choice but to keep its bases in Afghanistan. Kurdish regions of Iraq and Syria, along with Sunni regions facing Al-Qaeda insurgencies, with the Kurdish Controlled north eastern most province of Syria and Maronite Christian controlled pockets, could present a friendly staging ground as attacks across Assad's North Eastern coastal province could subdue and oust his hostile regime if necessary. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Armenia along with the US naval presence in the Black Sea stemming from the security precautions of the Olympic games could facilitate a tight drag net invasion of Iran that can prevent the Revolutionary Guard's escape from Tehran as the Saddam's Red Guard managed as Turkey blocked an invasion of Baghdad from the North West, sufficiently heading off and concealing the personnel competent in rallying a prolonged insurgency. Turkey continues to be the Wild Card in the game, a bridge from Europe to the Middle East, it could bring a substantial, professional, secular Muslim democratically controlled military into the game, but it is more likely to sit to the side lines complaining about war, American militance and the Kurdish Independence groups it considers terrorists. Such a war would be dreadful, the costs high, the civilian toll high and while the West would win the battle, our domestic freedoms would be tested, our finances stretched and population pressed in a way that is difficult to sustain in a democracy with a free media and internet. Similarly to how Great Britain's success in World War II fostered the transition of global power to the United States, such actions would likely incur a transition of global power from the United States of America to the United Nations. Such an invasion would also inevitably play into the hands Al-Qaeda and Islamists as a stable state with improving democratic institutions and practice would be invariably destroyed. The UN could not resist its unsustainable and unaffordable near-communistic instincts of which substantial portions of the populace, at least in the US, Israel and British Commonwealth nations will never accept, so then what?

The preferred course, is for Iran to understand how serious we are about preventing their acquisition of a nuclear weapons, that such an acquisition would mean the immediate acquisition of a nuclear weapon Iran's regional rival in Saudi Arabia by way of Pakistan, and even tighter sanctions, further isolating them at a time when substantial portions of the population seek modernity. As negotiations continue, let us expect Iran to make the rational decision, for trust to be built, and for Iran to avoid the acquisition and creation of a nuclear warhead.

Confidence building measures must be pursued, collaboration with UN nuclear watchdogs must continue, as intelligence agencies penetrate the highest levels of the regime and nuclear facilities to be certain that the enrichment process does not reach weapons grade and stays below 5%. This is the agreement, the necessary appearance of strength for Rouhani, achieving a peaceful nuclear energy program, the parallel compromise of Robert Kennedy's agreement to turn the NATO missile launchers in Turkey 180 degrees in the resolution of the Cuban Missile crisis.

Conservation of force requires us to be patient with the agreements on Syria, to understand the treacherous operational environment and difficulty of moving its Chemical Weapons to the coast. America and the West must make our condemnation of Bashar al-Assad's regime clear, while being honest about the prevalence of Al-Qaeda amongst the opposition and the immense uncertainty as to what would come with a Rebel victory. While US military action, with at minimum a now fly zone, on up to the deployment of 75,000 troops would bring about a rebel victory whose aftermath we would be in a stronger position to manage, it could also push the Iranians to the decision that nuclear deterrence is the only means of preventing an American lead invasion, a calculus that would have been different if America had already bombed Syrian Chemical Weapons sights with Congressional approval before entering into such an agreement with Iran. Republican's in Congress having already made so many devastating blunders, must they destroy the canvas upon which the map of earth is drawn by expecting Iran to dismantle their nuclear program altogether?

In the meantime America cannot fall for the classic tragic downfall of the Heros of greek morality plays, Hubris- or excessive pride, and must instead continue mending relations with allied powers, reassure confidence in both the capability and necessity of our military, its continued presence in Afghanistan, its preparedness to face larger conflicts, while rallying funds and support to partner with vulnerable nations in Africa and across the Middle East, both in collaboration with the United Nations and World Bank, but also at times directly and independently. American investment can help leverage the natural resources of these regions that when combined with technocracy and training can yield them to the benefit of the domestic populaces as well as our own, facilitating security training capable of protecting these rising nations infrastructures and economies from the destitute backwardness of terrorism, reducing the need for American and European warriors and soldiers as the competency and professionalism of their militaries increase in partnership with the West at the direction of our responsible leadership. The world has not been sentenced to a third world war, but it is on notice of the risks, I plead with varying parties challenging the incumbents to hush their egos, and stand unified behind the elected leadership as we navigate through a challenging and difficult period, from which we will emerge as a global populace wealthier, stronger and more unified than ever before. May we prepare for war, pray for peace and find the patience and discipline to wait as the vigor of our intelligence agencies, the pathways of our diplomatic channels, military commands and productivity of economy is renewed and focused.

Syrian Civil War

International Relations

Foreign Policy Strategy