On Iraq and Middle East Peace
On Iraq and Middle East Peace
In Iraq we're seeing a continuation of the traditional Sunni/Shiite riffs developing, with Al-Qaeda working to represent minority Sunni Groups. Shiite leadership wants helicopters and weapons to put down the insurgency, the government needs them to combat Al-Qaeda; however, based on its record in the Arab spring and in the hinterlands there is a high risk that at some point they may use them against unarmed civilians. If USA does not provide them; however, the Iraqi government is likely to buy them from Iran, Russia or France with an equal risk of the same result. Depending on the expertise of Foreign Service Officers in Iraq, their may be means to use those weapons as leverage to curtail political violence, and to remedy some of the legitimate Sunni grievances. While the Obama Administration has at least publicly avoided discussions of Iraq, it is an integral part of the Middle East picture. The Shiite dominated Iraq has become a proxy state to Iran, even going so far as engaging in political killings on Iran's behalf, so its hard to say whether Al-Qaeda is the dominant force of Sunni resistance or Sunni Resistance is being labeled as such for the political convenience of Al-Malaki. This is a question, the State Department and CIA are tasked to answer. The real presence of Al-Qaeda, however, cannot be denied, nor can its obvious epicenter in Saudi Arabia. While I am not on the ground, from the more reliable sources from which I am receiving intel it seems clear that where Saudi Arabia is sending troops, Al-Qaeda's is fighting.
I do not believe the Saudi Government is directly to blame for this, at least specifically Faisal and Abdullah, the Government has long been a strategic partner of the United States, done a tremendous amount to modernize their country, create a meritocracy and provide access to the sciences that despite all of its chauvinistic cultural norms, carry a degree of civility and development that is praiseworthy. Closer investigations into the financial pathways leading to real Al-Qaeda fighters, as well as media, communications and the role they play in creating or activating Al-Qaeda fighters can shed valuable insights on the issue. I suspect to some extent that the Saudi leadership has issues with insurgent youths and so directs the animosity of religious rhetoric away from themselves, away from America and towards nearer geopolitical rivals in Syria, Iraq and Iran, at times facilitating and allowing for the flow of money, troops and soldiers to direct them away towards mutual enemies. Such may be the convenient policy, and in Syria, it may have been mutually beneficial to an extent, but for the time being its to an extent which has since passed, with the understood reality that these fighters are too radicalized, undisciplined and have ends that are unacceptable to the international community because of a lack of respect for minority and woman's rights.
For the liberal coalition behind Barack Obama, it is increasingly difficult for America to justify extensive backing beyond trade, when our country has both Shiite and Sunni citizens and the geopolitical advantage for America is minimal. A lift on the ban against woman driving in Saudi Arabia, can ease our efforts to maintain domestic support for mutually agreed upon trade and security policies. Furthermore, it is not to say that Assad's removal from power is not a mutual goal, but a concern as to what happens afterwards where there is a rift, with the US favoring the installation of the Free Syrian Assembly on conditions its constitution protects minority and woman's rights while providing for basic secular institutions.
At this point, with all the chaos of the past few years, American invasions, followed by Arab Springs turned to violent revolutions and civil wars, the priority should be peace and stability upon whose backs, prosperity can be built. American funding, therefore, and the provision of products and services to the region, should be focused on that which advances the organizational goals of peace, stability and prosperity. At times this includes policing and security equipment; however, it should be balanced by spending on textbooks, medicines, peace officers, courts, legal expertise, infrastructure and business development. This is not to ignore the necessities of fighting insurgencies, but sometimes the minimal actions of simple arrests, trials and convictions is more effective than heavy handed military responses.
Before any weapons sales can be considered, the Shiite leadership in Iraq needs to make more concessions to the Sunni minorities and allow for more regional sovereignty in Iraq and show this by taking clear and progressive reconciliatory steps to ease tensions. Doing such, will improve the ability for Iraqi law enforcement to garner the cooperation from non-Al-Qaeda linked Sunnis and with an effective use of both sociological or psychological approaches at rehabilitation to augment peace keeping and policing, improvements to the quality of life in Iraq can commence. The prize that all Middle East leaders (particularly Israel) should be looking for is a non-nuclear proliferation agreement between Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey that can help to assuage concerns and stand as an achievable near term benchmark towards regional peace as progress continues to be made towards a two state solution in Israel/Palestine. Both sides are going to continue fighting each other, blaming the other to justify their actions and neither side is right, cooperation and collaboration, focus on understanding human needs and efforts by the governments and populaces to provide those for each other is the better route. Democracy and open markets can help achieve these ends; however, by prioritizing the pre-requisites for successful democracy individual dignity, peace, prosperity and stability can often be easier achieved.
Imagine, a Middle East sanction free, at peace, with video surveillance of all nuclear reactors visible by United Nations Security council members, guaranteeing the peaceful usage of such nuclear energy and clear, comprehensive monitoring to show that neither are enriching uranium to weapons grade, where Israelis and Palestinians both have their own countries, with mutually agreed upon land swaps and territories close to the 67 borders and a palestinian capital in East Jerusalem for Palestine, where some 200,000 palestinians already currently live, the carrot for full compliance and five years of unbroken peace.