Saturday, January 24, 2015

Are the Houthi Rebels in Yemen taking orders from Iran and receiving technical support from Russian Intelligence?


    Based on the tactical success of the Houthi Rebel attacks, it is obvious that the Houthi Rebels are receiving substantial outside clandestine support.  The first culprit, is clearly Iran and specifically their al-Quds forces.  It cannot be overlooked by serious security advisors that a nuclear armed and unsanctioned Iran would be free fund and support these types of operations throughout the region.   If past behavior is any indicator of future behavior, then it is clear that allied foreign policy relating to Iran has to set the heights higher than simply preventing direct military conflict as the cowardly doves on the far left would assert, our allies have to posture and be willing to take measured actions to not only deter nuclear ambitions but also to reign in clandestine support and actions for troublesome groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and now, the Houthi's.  While allowing for Houthi's to have greater autonomy in the north of Yemen is appropriate, allowing for a small shi'ite minority to maintain control of the nation's security forces and oil infrastructure while occupying the Capital and houses of governance is going to set the conditions and create an environment where sunni majority resistance may increasingly look to Al-Qaeda out of necessity as an increasingly legitimate voice and arm of sunni politics in Yemen.

    Furthermore, the operational means, of direct targeting and occupation of symbolic houses of governance, mirrors the strategy of ethnic Russian rebels in Ukraine.  With recent dialogue between Iran and Russia soothing grievances over debts relating to Iran's nuclear program, and now, according to Carnegie Endowment's Counter proliferation news letter, a re-committment to a previously stalled plan to delivery sophisticated Russian ground-to-air missile defense systems in Iran, it is likely that Russia has had a hand in coordinating the "Houthi Coup," working through Iran's Al-Quds networks as a proxy.

      With transition in Saudi Arabia following the death of King Abdullah and a security focus on the Islamic State, the US needs to send in special forces operations to clear the capitol of Houthi rebels and install a unity government willing to continue the fight against Al-Qaeda, whose core operates in the North East of Yemen along the Saudi border.
   
       I'm looking at patterns, but if human and signals intelligence provides hard evidence for such links, the pressure to take action against Iran escalates.  From the fact patterns I've observed and my understanding of state-behavior, it is highly likely that 1. Iran is seeking a nuclear energy program as cover for a nuclear weapons programs. 2. It is using negotiations with the West to buy space to develop enrichment capabilities 3. with agreements in place Iran will bring enrichment capabilities towards "breakout capacity" and then use the financial relief of sanctions to invest in the development of more sophisticated delivery capabilities 4. advanced Russian ground to air missile systems will significantly increase the costs and complexity of allied strikes against Iran's nuclear program 5. while a nuclear a deterrent by Iran may reduce the risk of direct conflict between Iran and Israel or Iran and Saudi Arabia, and US allies and Iran, 6. it will essentially provide Iran a carte blanche to engage in aggressive clandestine meddling that will include 7. Increased support in terms of weapons and training to Hamas 8. Increased weapons and training to Hezbollah who hold significant numbers and influence in Lebanon and Bahrain to greatly destabilize and potentially overthrow current Saudi/US aligned regimes, and harass and intimidate cooperation from the Qatari regime 9. Increase support for Islamist brigades in Libya, including Ansar al-Sharia brigade responsible for the attacks on US diplomates and 10. increased support in terms of AKs, bullets, intelligence and training for Boko Haram in Nigeria. 11. Al-Quds, also have increasingly reached across the shi'ite-sunni divide, assisting the predecessor to the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda in Iraq with IEDs, intel and funding to harass coalition forces and Hamas (primarily nationalistic in nature, but traditionally sunni).  12.  They will seek to deliver missiles to Venezuela (as previously discussed with Hugo Chavez) and 13. look to collaborate with Mexican Cartels to improve smuggling (potentially nuclear bomb in back pack as retaliatory deterrent) and assassination capabilities (as seen with attempt on Saudi ambassador to UN in New York).

     It may be politically exigent to present negotiations with Iran as successful, remove sanctions and direct our attention elsewhere but as it pertains to security and sound foreign policy strategy, there are massive unaddressed risk that could become cataclysmic very quickly.  Pakistan has just built another large reactor to grow its nuclear capabilities, and allowing Iran to go nuclear will prompt Saudi Arabia to collect three nuclear warheads from Pakistan that they already paid for, and have an unknown affect on Turkey.  With such regional volatility and so many mirky irrational extremist groups just beneath the surface in these countries, managed proliferation is becomes an unacceptable gamble with the very existence of humanity in the balance.

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