Advice for incoming Secretary of Defense Ash Carter

Advice for Incoming Secretary of Defense Ash Carter
by Theo Johnson

     The recent events in Libya, including the beheading of at least 21 Coptic Christians from Libya, highlight the urgent need for action to contain the contamination of Islamic State's ideology and tactics in Libya.  The infamous militia, Ansar al-Sharia brigade, one of many militias that fought to overthrow Gaddafi under the cover of a NATO-lead bombing campaign carried out under the UN approved enforcement of a no-fly/no-tank zone, became infamous on the eve of September 11th, 2012 when it coordinated a flash mob using an obscure anti-Islamic video.  The flash mob was stirred up to provide cover to wage an attack on the American Embassy in Benghazi, that resulted in the death of US Ambassador, J. Christopher Stevens and US Foreign Service Information Management Officer Sean Smith.  The attacks were clearly planned as the locations had been well-scouted, involving the coordination of a second attack on a separate sight that resulted in the deaths of two other US persons linked to the CIA.  The motivation for the attack may have been retaliation for punishing drone strikes against remnants of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan on the anniversary of the September 11, 2001 World Trade Center attacks.  The event raised a number of questions relating to the provision of security for the embassy, with obvious political motivations by the Republican party investigations into the matter, conversations about Libyan policy became politically toxic, and talks about past human error prevented congressional action and planning for Libya's future.   There was sparse attention paid to the unraveling conditions in Libya, with infighting, political drama and military/militant clashes largely being ignored as ISIS operations in Syria and Anbar become the media and administration's primary focus.

       While a former General linked to Langley, General Khalifa, has fought tirelessly to restore order, strengthen courts and form a constitution, Islamist brigades have implored terror and violence to send the elected parliament into retreat on a ferry in the Mediterranean for a time, as one Islamist declared himself an Emir and established a rival government.  Former Secretary of Defense, Sen. Hegel, was largely derelict in his duties, failing to press for and plan for actions in Libya.  In the first year after the Libyan revolution in 2012 it became the world's fastest growing economy with immense optimism about its transition to democracy and the end of Gaddafi. Looking to bring the country back on course and away from civil war will require focused and competent international intervention.   A stone's throw from Italy and in the middle of the North African countries from which the Arab spring began, it was the only young north african democracy to elect a secular government in its first election (In Tunisia the Islamists won the majority of votes but were highly cooperative with the liberal parliament members and cooperative in the formation of a more Westphalian democratic structure).  Libya has also traditionally had the highest standards of living, or average incomes in the entirety of Africa, with incomes competitive with Mediterranean countries on the North side of the Sea.  In the long war with "Islamist extremism and terrorist violence," Libya is in a crucial position on the chess board for any sound realist foreign policy strategy.  With Abu Bakr declaring himself Caliphate, the Ansar al-Sharia brigade, along with other rebel groups are believed to have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State and expanded their conflicts from the Tripoli airport to battles over key oil installations.    It has long been Al-Qaeda's strategy to draw the US into the scariest regions of the Muslim world and engage the West and its allies in tough, costly fights as part of a "Strategy of a Thousand Cuts," to bleed our center of gravity, long identified by Osama Bin Laden as our economy, in an effort to weaken our resolve and retreat so that the Muslim world could mobilize to advance their efforts to bring the entire population of Earth under Islam by the way of Mohammed's sword.   If Libya can remain under the control of a western aligned government similar to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, it can become a model for the modern Democratic Islamic State and a source of wealth to help export more moderate forms of Islamic faith and invest in development to undercut the poverty often at root in jihadi violence.  Allowing for the wealth of Libya to fall under the dominion of the Islamic State will not only disrupt oil supplies and increase costs to businesses and people everywhere, it will also provide a lucrative revenue source to replenish Abu Bakr and the Islamic State's war chest.  With Ash Carter taking the reins from Chuck Hegel, his first order of business will be to tighten coordination with General el-Sissi in Egpyt, General Khalifa in Libya and implement the usage of Special Operations Forces and other military means to drive back the Islamic State and defend the internationally recognized and democratically elected government of Libya.  

      The Second order of business is going to involve mobilizing the region's Arab governments to prepare for an assault on ISIS in Syria.   The front of such invasion will need to come from Jordan to prevent the propaganda driving advantage of an assault from Turkey that would play into Qu'aranic prophesies and involve an increased US military presence in the Kurdish controlled regions in North Iraq, along with increased defenses around military bases in Anbar where US troops are providing technical and training support for Iraqi forces.   There is going to be a need to re-tool these units and it is my stalwart position, that the US and British need to work with the Israelis to clear a homeland for the regions Christian's in South Syria, along the Israeli border.  Al-Qaeda's Al-Nursa brigade had previously overrun Filipino UN peace keeping forces stationed in the Golan Heights.  The US and British Units will secure a homeland for the region's Christians, serve as a safe guard against assaults against Israel and as a strategic position to support the Jordan-lead Arab nation units and international participants.  If a broad enough international contingency can be brought on board with the fight and is willing to commit sizable amounts of troops, overwhelming numbers of boots on the ground is the surest, safest and actually most humane means of bringing the threat of the Islamic State to a close.  I have outlined proposed political resolution for the Syrian side of the conflict in On the Origins of the Islamic State and US Strategy in the Middle East.

    The third order of business is going to involve increased pressure to bring about a political solution in Yemen where Houthi Rebels, a Shi'ite minority group, have taken control of the Capital opening a a window of opportunity for Al-Qaeda in Yemen to move in as the primary opposition to the Houthis and voice for Sunnis in Yemen.  Al-Qaeda has already sacked several Yemeni military bases.  The US has been engaged in covert operations in the region directed at Al-Qaeda, whose core is believed to be in Yemen.  If the Houthi's are unwilling to create some type of power sharing agreement, Al-Qaeda, who has been carefully attempting to rebrand themselves threatens to take large swaths of territory in Sunni dominated regions and establish zones of control to wage incursions into Saudi Arabia that would threaten to destabilize the monarchy.  If the Houthis cannot come to political compromise with moderate Sunni elements, then Saudi or UAE special forces operations may become the necessary means of driving the Houthis out of the capitol, the halls of government and key energy installations so that moderate Sunni government cooperative with the US and Saudis can displace al-Qaeda's influence.

    In Afghanistan, early successes by the Taliban during the hand-over seem to have been slowed and the Afghani Forces have fought courageously and successfully on numerous occasions.  Ash Carter will be well advised, however, to consider maintaining some permanent US military presence, particularly the establishment of air bases in the Northeast and Northwest of the country to serve as contingency safe guards relating nuclear concerns in both Iran and Pakistan, and of course also to assist the Kabul government as necessary.

    It is hopeful that the show of US resolve will also make it clear to Iran that the US and its allies are serious about preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.  Crucial to any compromise is an energy program that is on a scale which can easily be monitored and avoids any approach towards break-out capacity. Ayatollah Khomeini talks about a nuclear program of industrial proportions on a scale that would be nearly impossible to monitor.  To be candid and honest, positioning for any more than that which is enough to produce adequate nuclear medicine is already proposition reducing the likely hood of seeing 2016.  Barack Obama warned him not to call his bluff and if that's a problem, perhaps he should seek console of Gaddafi and Saddam.  We certainly do not want war with Iran, but a nuclear armed Iran is not a possibility Congress is ever going to realistically accept.  By bolstering the Kurdish Pesh Merga's capacity to wage kinetic warfare against ISIS, the US and British airbases will also bolster the credibility in our deterrence of Iranian nuclear ambitions. While there is no reason to extend the deadline for a deal, it is of course our hope and expectation that the deal can be made, however it is important to note, that Iran's actions relating to Al-Quds and use of Hezbollah as a proxy are a continued irritant to the regions security and peace that need to be reigned in as a matter of good faith and for the interests of both humanity and potential punishing responses against the Iranian and Lebanese people.

    Any operations are going to be conducted on far tighter budgets then previously provided, and so with the militaries focus on security, there is going to be a need for increased efforts to provide support and investment centered-around improving economic and market performance in the region, a means of improving the standard of living and normalizing the regions politics away from extremism.  The US and International Community would be well served by moving away from Hegelian interpretations of history as process, and instead work on developing governing forms more symbiotic with the traditions of Islam, with cooperative human resources willing to meet basic goals of security and economic performance, an educational system and functional court systems capable of mediating disputes and pursuing justice.


#ISIS #Libya #Egypt #AshCarter #Houthi #Daesh