Sunday, September 8, 2013

America's Evolving Strategy in the Middle East


#Congressional Vote of Syria Resolution #Democratic Party #Syria #Assad #Barack Obama 

     The hours are counting down for Bashar Assad to step down from power in Syria.  His exit is the only hope for a peaceful and political resolution to the civil war in Syria.  His use of Chemical weapons is appalling and the fact that Al-Qaeda aligned fighters are active on the ground does not undermine the validity of other rebel's grievances or the inexcusable actions already taken by Bashar Assad.  Bombing his own people and using chemical weapons is not something that we can ever accept and if his actions go unpunished, America's future credibility in deterring future rogue leaders and dictators will be severely weakened.  Do we want to live in a world where rogue leaders around the world believe that they can use weapons of mass destruction against their own people with impunity?  Do we want to signal to Iran that pursuing Nuclear Weapons is acceptable and will not be punished?  Do we want to show the world that America has forfeited its sovereignty to the United Nations and Russia's self interested votes to protect their naval bases in Syria and protect is financial client?  I cannot responsibly stand back and say yes to any of these questions and what is worse is the obstinate obstruction of political foot dragging for what is purely political gain without any regard for the security needs of USA.  

    Syria poses a direct threat to both our allies in the region and the United States because if those chemical weapons fall into the hands of Al-Qaeda or elements of Hezbollah supporting Assad, they could potentially be used against America  as Assad's regime collapses.  Allowing Assad to use them again against innocent civilians is morally reprehensible and so appeasement is not an option.  The ham in hand cannot be our answer to destroying the elements of Al-Qaeda in Syria, Assad must go, but if a political solution is possible, than all the easier to use the experienced individuals of the Baathist regime in the formation of a new government and the use of the Syrian army to fight al-Qaeda.  As those missiles begin to hit their targets, Assad will cower and the generals in his army will be looking for a deal.  America- we must not back down on our values and virtues- we must be resolute and stand with resolve in our opposition to the appalling human rights abuses perpetrated by Assad's regime.  America may not need to play cop in this, but it does need to play referee and degrading Assad's chemical weapons capabilities is the appropriate calculated response and it necessary for the severe security threat those chemical weapons in the hands of a collapsing regime pose.  

   This is not an action that will put American troops in harms way, this is not an action that is going to lead to escalation in the level of war fighting America has been waging, it is a punitive punishment for an unacceptable breach of international norms and America's responsibility as world leader of merit, to execute a measured retaliation.  

    It is my hope that Assad steps down tomorrow, that he accepts an exiled retirement in another country- perhaps Russia or Iran- and that an agreement with tolerable elements of the rebels and the current Baathist regime in Syria can be made.    

   It is my severe regret that Democracy failed in Egypt and in a way feel the allowance of Morsi's ousting was act of sabotage to a delicate strategy requiring finesse and understanding of the different groups within the Arab world, but with the events where they are, America needs to shift its goals in the Middle East away from democracy and towards establishing the pre-requisites of democracy.  On Egypt, Morsi talked, but in practice, he failed to defend minority rights and provide adequate constitutional protections, the cause of his downfall.  I cannot commend the actions of the Egyptian army, but after seeing the effect of sanctioning in Mali, and despite the eventual success of operations there, I regret that at this point America needs to back the intern regime.  With that our strategy officially must shift from a democracy of votes in the Middle East to an emphasis on the development of pseudo-democratic institutions necessary for democracy, rates of literacy, free press, mass communications, security, math and the sciences, infrastructure, economic development, legal protections for minority groups, independent courts and freedom of religion before we can force democracy on populations that may not have the technocracy, personnel and training to provide the adequate standards of living necessary to prevent these types of violent uprising and wars.   

   If Al-Qaeda's strategy is to bleed us to death and suck us in to tough fights with mutual enemies, America should save their energies, make the statement of 60 tomahawk cruise missiles at Assad's regime in Syria while also targeting Al-Qaeda affiliated elements of the resistance.  America needs to double down on Libya, prop up our regional allies and push to open Iran in dialogue, holding them accountable for their nuclear energy program and demanding they place open circuit cameras on ALL of their nuclear reactors so that the security council can view them at all times and know with certainty that they are not being used to make warheads.  Optimistically, such can be rewarded this time, with the end of sanctions against Iran and a period of acceptable peace.  The open circuit camera's on ALL iranian nuclear reactors is the only way I can guarantee devastating military actions will not be taken.  This is not a time for diplomatic relations with enemies, you either ride with us or are against us.  This is a time where the democratic party needs to show loyalty to our president and for the sensible and respectable republicans to avoid partisan tactics.  Our allies in Israel, particularly Benjamin Netanyahu needs to show that he has Obama's back as Obama has publicly declared defending Israel.  Jordan, Turkey, France, England, Nato members, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Libya, we appreciate your support.   

     And so, the strategy you ask for now, is to invest in the institutions that will put the Middle East on the path to democracy, while prioritizing efforts with the countries capable of higher levels of financial self-sufficiency and using lower cost, punitive measures against the tough enemies of little strategic value such Yemen and Somalia.  It is my prayer and my expectation, that Congress and Senate vote in overwhelming numbers to back our popularly elected president, Barack Obama, and provide him the exact resolution he has requested on Syria so that missile strikes on military command's prioritized targets can commence.  

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