On Democracy in the Middle East

On Democracy in the Middle East

   If there is something praiseworthy to be said about George Bush, it was his authentic belief in liberty, freedom and democracy.  His foreign policy was consistent in that he allowed for elections, even when the results were less than ideal for the interests of the United States of America and our allies.  This was showcased in Iraq, as millions risked their lives to vote, showing their blue stamped thumbs to the world, both a symbolic and very real sign, that the autocracy of Saddam had come to an end.  In Afghanistan, even as it was clear the 9/11 attacks were largely planned by Al-Qaeda, under the protection of the Taliban, as required according to their tribal code, despite reservations about the actions of Osama Bin Laden's organization.  In the Gaza strip, we saw Hamas win elections, despite the obvious threat they posed to Israel and the armed conflict their election would later bring.  Barack Obama, at odds with some on the far left, continued this policy.  With the Arab spring, we saw the old autocrats of North Africa fall, first in Tunisia, then in Egypt and then in Libya.  With free elections, we saw Islamists win elections in Tunisia, in Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood and in Libya, a secular regime the intelligence community hoped would shine as a light to the region so that in future elections they would vote the Islamists out of power.  Unfortunately, the peaceful revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt were over shadowed by the violence that would fill the streets of Libya and Syria.  The hope, the optimism, the finesse in Barack Obama's foreign policy was to guide the more moderate elements of Islamism into the political process, that with democracy and economic opportunity the extremism and terrorism would subside.  

    In the summer of 2013 it seemed the world was closer to meaningful peace than it had been in years.  Syria was still in turmoil, but with Rohani elected as president of Iran, progress on the terms of a two state solution between Israel and Palestine, successful defenses of democracy in Mali and the Ivory Coast it appeared that Democracy was continuing to expand.  In the delicate regions of the Middle East and Africa, Egypt has always been the bridge, of immense historical significance and continued pertinence to all things relating to that region of the world.  The irony of it is that it was that it was the military that tired of Autocracy and defended the people from violent crackdowns, and the liberals who have long championed democracy that lost patience with the popularly elected Muslim brotherhood, and while the official line is that "its yet to be determined if it was a coup," it was coup enough that a chorus of senators and congressmen from both the republican and democratic parties have called to halt aid to the Egyptian regime.  A decision that the lessons of Mali- where a military coup prompted by the failure of the democratically elected regime to fight Al-Qaeda aligned Islamist extremists in the north of the country caused a halt to US aid, allowing for the expansion of Al-Qaeda into the cities and even a push on Timbuktu that eventually forced a French lead UN intervention that successfully pushed Al-Qaeda back into the deserts in defeat- may serve as the governing historical precedent. 

     So America, must try to clarify its position, standing by its belief in democracy, avoiding the antiquated islamophobic positions that Arabs are not capable of democracy, while addressing the nastier extremism that has surfaced as Morsi was placed in jail and the direction of the Muslim Brotherhood has fallen in the hands of more radical and violent prone hands.   The peaceful revolution and democratic elections have turned to grotesque violence and the new regime in Egypt must decide whether they can save face with a power sharing agreement acceptable to Morsi, or unleash the old wolves of Mubarak and the old heavy handed tactics of oppression that bring sympathy to the Brotherhood, delegitimize the ruling party and in so many ways exasperate the problem not only in Egypt but throughout the entirety of the region.  The cautious warning I reluctantly give the interim leadership is this, if you seek the path of oppression you better not leave an ember of the Muslim Brotherhood to light a new fire, and the tactics necessary to do such will certainly result in the condemnation of the West, the severing of any financial support for the Egyptian military from the United States and continued civil strife an unease as the volatility of the situation subsides.  This isn't to say Egypt won't receive other support in areas of the economy, technical direction and financial support from other regional partners like Saudi Arabia, but the billions in aid that have propped up the military and the helicopters already paid for are unlikely to ever arrive as domestic law in America forbids aid to nations in circumstances of coups until democratic elections are held once again and unfortunately, its unclear the Muslim brotherhood wouldn't win again and certainly would hold substantial seats in parliament. 

    The inability of the Islamists to show that they can lead in a democracy is the other lesson, the failures of the Muslim Brotherhood were clear, and it was their unwillingness to compromise, their refusal to embrace protections for minorities and civil rights that sealed their own fate.  The truth is, as FDR and Churchill worked with Stalin to defeat Hitler, that at times, the expedience of aligning with those who have common foes or as the cliche would say, the enemy of my enemy is my friend, is the course of action survival necessitates.  But if such is so, then what message does the Egyptian coup say to the cesspool of varying militant Islamist groups around the Middle East, Africa and even in Europe and USA that have been kept at bay by the promise of democratic involvement?  If the idea was decapitate the core, suppress the periphery while guiding the more moderate elements into a legitimate political process what message has the actions of Egypt's military sent?  How can America make the case to the Arab street that if they are patient, work within the political process in peace, work hard to improve their economic viability, that they can achieve an acceptable end?  Its going to be increasingly difficult to keep the various groups apart, and while the core of Al-Qaeda has been decapitated, its related groups have expanded, the Arab street has coiled into an internal and divisive war, and the tough handed leadership of the Saudi, Bahrain, Qatari, Jordan, UAE and Oman seem to be the answer as merit and competence has replaced both kleptocracy and populist folly, democracy takes new shapes beyond one man, one vote.  

    The reality is, that while all deserve democracy, all nations are capable of achieving it, it requires certain preconditions to succeed.  It requires adequate rates of literacy, independent courts, significant protections for minority and civil rights, ample meritocracy and funding for the liberal institutions expected to come with democracy; including education and university systems, judicial systems, medical systems and a security apparatus that include military and public safety officers.  The shift then, needs to move away from just holding elections, to really working to develop these things in the Arab and African worlds so that when they hold elections, they have a constitutional framework, a plurality of parties and the democratic pre-requisites necessary to allow for the young democracies to take off and serve the ever unrealistic expectations of the people.