Thought’s on CFR’s daily brief- 09/02/2014.

Thought’s on CFR’s daily brief- 09/02/2014.

On Hong Kong

    The United States should stand with the British in condemning China’s ruling on democracy in Hong Kong as violation of their treaty handing over administrative control of the financial juggernaut.  This is a matter of serious drift, within which both the US and our truest ally share immense national interests.  Let us not forget that the reason we opened trade with China was a hope that increased trade would create a middle class that would push for democratic reforms.  This has not happened, largely because Chinese business owners have benefited from the status quo.  While there is a need for delicacy, Congress could ban Chinese steel imports to the US and British countries, a move that would help American workers and a crucial industry for US independence and strength, while weakening China’s ability to dominate the globe in the coming decades.  There is some risk that such a move will push China towards Russia, but with their current energy deals already inked, improving relations with India and Japan as a regional counter-balance, this can be the opportunity to save US Steel and improve the livelihoods of once vibrant iron mines and steel mills across the Midwest.

On Pakistan

        More than Russia, China or ISIS, Pakistan poses the most woeful threats to security if it is left to neglect and Islamists were to come to power and apprehend a 100 warhead nuclear arsenal.  The markets have rewarded Sharif’s economic reforms, and US influence within the military needs to work towards keeping him in control.  Part of the key to such success; however, is maintaining enough support for the military to continue its assault on the Taliban and recruitment of promising officers free from Taliban sympathies.  US money given to Pakistan’s government to buy safety precautions around its nuclear program has too often been funneled by way of the Pakistani Intelligence agency, ISI, into the Haqqani network which has served as a bridge of support for coordination between Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in the Afpak region.  While 12 years of fighting have severely decayed the capacity of these networks, 40 million Pashtuns makes for an endless base of recruitment should Pakistani leadership determine that the Taliban is a better option than Afghanistan leadership excessively cozy with India. The solution lies in closer financial monitoring and making sure that dispersals of aid are attached towards achievements of cooperative goals.  The reality that Osama Bin Laden was living comfortably in the midst of Pakistani Generals and ISI facilities is a case and point.   Increasingly however, Pakistan’s establishment has to see the Taliban as a beast beyond its control that need be aggressively contained.  Perhaps it is time for Pakistan to ban private schools and for the international community to fund an effective secular public school system where attendance is required by all school aged youths.

On ISIS

      A casual glimpse at Youtube jihadi channels will tell you the situation in Iraq.  The Sunnis of Anbar province and in the East of Syria have risen up and the lack of broader international intervention to appease the Russian Tsar’s desire to keep his warm water naval base and prime client for Russian military arms has allowed for this disaster to unfold.  The US could have done a better job at making it clear to Russia that it could keep its ports and have priority on contracts with the future regimes to furnish Security Council approvals for military action.  Had the congress authorized force and Barack Obama's Administration taken action against Bashar Assad’s Syrian regime early, as he stated to be his intention, the Sunnis fighting for their survival could have been pulled into more moderate chains of command and the extreme radicalization that the brutality of the Syrian civil war has caused could have been avoided.  The US would be far more credible in dealing with Iran’s nuclear program and Al-Qaeda would not be over-running UN bases in the Golan Heights.  Wider war now seems eminent and a clearly positive outcome seems farfetched, mid-term senatorial and congressional elections seem to be the only cause for pause preventing a larger regional military campaign.  November will soon pass, the results of those elections will matter little as the situation on the ground will stir the generals to pressure a president who is not facing reelection to take the necessary actions to prevent the rise of a terror state.  I fear it is only a matter of time before the Islamic State successfully prompts disaffected Muslim Youths in Europe and the United States to engage in violence on its behalf.  The domestic responses will only further polarize the politics in the countries of attack and I anticipate, garner further support for drastic and divisive right wing policies relating to immigration and security that may unfortunately become necessary.  The key to US security rests in a far closer monitoring of student visas, and structured programs to keep students from hi-risk regions under close watch.  This requires an allocation of resources and recruitment of personnel beyond the current status quo.  The student visa programs can become an asset to US efforts to combat extremism abroad, but legislative changes are needed to bring student visas under special classifications of law, with tighter rules surrounding housing, monitoring and conditions attached to completion of academic studies.  According to ABC, 6,000 student visas are currently AWOL, many of them may be sympathetic to the Islamic State and vulnerable to recruitment.

  

Hong Kong 

Pakistan 

ISIS