Future Conflict

Future Conflict

     There are many indicators that peace is increasing as democracy and international trade have increased creating a complex interdependence escalating the financial harm to rational decision makers. What I want to look at in this essay are potential scenarios where major conflict may arise so that we plan accordingly and make efforts to prevent these scenarios from recurring. As a matter of research, I believe that future wars will be less over ideology, religion or even nationalism and increasingly over resources, particularly if increases in production do not keep pace with increases in population. With nuclear deterrence and the UN limiting nation on nation conflicts, inner-national disputes over resource rich territory and the allocation of its earnings will become increasingly prevalent. We have seen this across the Middle East where indigenous ethnic groups increasingly resorting to force to protect the profits of regional resources. Its easy to imagine increasing levels of hostility between rival firms and corporations shifting into privatized espionage and armed intimidation. It may become the case that States within the USA that have large resources will act with increasing hostility toward the Federal Government in an effort to keep proceeds from oil drilling for example, at the state, municipal and corporate level. Leaders of such nations desperate to redirect frustrations from contingents unwilling to recognize the role of internal strife in proliferating problems will use external enemies in an effort to unite rivals. We've seen this in the Middle East for years, as leaders like Saddam in Iraq invoke the common enemy of America to redirect civil strife between Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds with disproportionate amounts of oil reserves. Future Presidents of the United States may need a common foe to unite democrats and republicans and point to the Middle East as their villain and its potential threat to security to justify its massive budgets.

      With the Middle East as an expensive distraction, the Government may find the wherewithal to stifle domestic dissent, raise necessary revenues and consolidate control over the economy in a means sufficient to maintain American Hegemony. The test will be in finding a way to do so without being so rigid that a freedom loving populace doesn't rebel and collapse the regime allowing either for China's rise or a transition to a global government centered around the United Nations. The most likely future conflict is Iran and if it continues to develop its nuclear capabilities it will either face a strike from Israel or a larger military operation from America and its allies. While there is a risk that conflict will escalate between the Middle East, North Africa and Western Civilization as a whole, for strategic purposes we are more likely to see a Sunni dominate rule of the Middle East based out of Saudi Arabia protect the interests of its best customers in Europe and America with the Governments of these nations working together to pull Russia back into the fold while gradually pushing China towards democracy.

      While there are incidents where empires were surpassed by other empires with minimal conflict the instance of Great Britain and the United States is explainable by the fact that they were ideologically so similar it was like a son surpassing their parent. As the Roman empire surpassed Greece there were conflicts created alongside the diffusion of ideas on governance, but similarities made the transition tolerable despite prevalent armed conflict. For China and America, the differences are greater, the ideologies distant, while religious and ethnic loyalties persist in the shadows.

   The combination of nuclear deterrence and mutually beneficial trade has allowed for peace, the fear is that Americans frustrated with trade imbalances revert to protectionist policies and fail to raise the tax revenues necessary to meet debt obligations to Beijing while economic frustrations or crop failures in China result in growing anger and dissatisfaction their leadership causing the Communist party to externalize blame for its own failures with the promotion of Marxist theories scapegoating America Capitalist while relighting traditional regional hostilities with Japan. Will China react by making a move on Taiwan, or on strategic Islands in the Pacific in effort to call America's bluff on its willingness to use nuclear deterrents without a direct attack? America can not afford any territorial expansion of China by its military and will need to utilize nuclear weapons in the event of Chinese territorial expansion. What if Nuclear Disarmament occurs? The nuclear deterrent will reduce the costs and risks of war to the point that full scale war will occur and only end with rearmament of nuclear arsenals and their usage. Mutually Assured Destruction is our only protection.  America needs to restore its economic might and retain its heavy stick of US military might while justifying its military aims with the virtue of protecting populaces from their own tyrannical governments.

      Responsibly, America must press China on trade imbalances, help build up India's naval presence in the Indian Ocean, work in strategic partnerships with Mongolia, Burma, and Indonesia while maintaining secret military bases in North East Afghanistan and the capacity to cut off the flow of natural gas and oil from the Middle East along with trade between the Straits of Malacca while continuing to engage China in trade and collaboration in dealing with terrorist threats and the development of impoverished regions. America needs to develop its assets in Hong Kong and Tibet while being prepared to inundate the public with anti-communist history in an effort to flip them on democracy and economic freedom. The hope is that with better coordination between the United States Government and its Corporations efforts to reign in corporate agendas and align them with national security interests effective and competent direction will prove America is the indispensable power capable of leading with resolve and virtue. Closer ties to democratic allies in Europe and regional trading partners throughout the hemisphere need to be expanded. America needs to be strong, but it cannot be a bully, it must coordinate with allies and lead by example, promoting based on merit and continually illustrating its commitment to the defense and advance of prosperity and peace.  Decisive and wise leadership is the only way to prove American Hegemony is still the best prospect for global peace and prosperity.